Aug 18, 2007

Fred Thompson Acts Lazy and Wears Gucci Loafers at Iowa Fair (Sez Fox Video)

[thompsonfredgucciloaferscountryfair.jpg]
Lazy Gucci-Wearing Fred Thompson Goes To The Iowa Fair

With friends like Fox News, Fred Thompson doesn't need Democrats. Fox reports that Fred Thompson played like he's a real candidate by motoring around the Iowa State Fair in a golf cart and taking lots of breaks in the VIP tent, all the while wearing his Gucci loafers at the country fair. Says Fox News in another video (48 sec) clip: "He's been motoring around in a golf cart, something that no other presidential candidate has done throughout the entire two weeks of the state fair." (Video clip below is 4 minutes.)

What was it that Jim Cooper said about Fred Thompson back in the 1990s? Oh, yeah, Fred Thompson is a "Gucci-wearing, Lincoln-driving, Perrier-drinking, Grey Poupon–spreading millionaire Washington special-interest lobbyist."

Fred Thompson Tries To Get It Right - Again

Fred Thompson Tries To Get It Right - Again

by bigjolly | 08/08/2007 11:38 am | Alert moderator

Good ol' boy, regular American guy Fred just can't seem to figure out who he wants to run his non-campaign campaign. Maybe the third time's a charm .

Fred Thompson on Wednesday tapped the man he credits with saving his 1994 Senate campaign to take over his likely presidential bid.

Bill Lacy, a former strategist for Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole and Republican National Committee, will run day-to-day operations of Thompson's committee to "test the waters" for a presidential run.

"He turned around my campaign for Senate in 1994

Someone better turn this ship around. Lately it's been more like one of those subs in the Hunt for Red October, sinking fast.

The all-but-declared candidate collected about $1.5 million less than the $5 million backers had hoped to bring in during June, his first fundraising month. In July, Thompson sidelined his campaign-manager-in-waiting, Tom Collamore, and watched a few other aides follow him out the door amid consternation inside the operation about the active role of Thompson's wife, Jeri.

Perhaps Mr. Lacy will fare a bit better than he did in his last stint as a presidential campaign manager.

A White House political director in the Reagan administration, Lacy was Dole's political strategist for 10 years, including during the Kansas senator's failed 1996 presidential run. Lacy resigned shortly after Dole lost the New Hampshire and Delaware primaries.

I'll say this for Mr. Lacy, he sure nailed the reason for ol' Fred's turnaround in his Senate race.

"Fred isn't Superman. His style has some similarities to President Reagan, but he hasn't been around as long and proven himself as much," Lacy wrote. "But he has been tested: In the darkest hours of his political career, when the wheels were about to come off his first campaign, he figured out how to scoop them up, put them on a red truck and drive off into the sunset."

You could write a book from that statement. Certainly, his style is similar to Reagan's, give him that much. But even though his Senate career wasn't exactly stellar, you have to give him credit where credit is due. He did manage to get McCain/Feingold passed, even got a loving note from Russ for his efforts.

But I like that last one best, about scooping up the wheels, renting a little red truck and driving into the sunset. What little red truck ?

Although some of his campaign staff protested the move as cheesy, they leased Thompson a red Chevy pickup and he hit the road. Cooper attempted to paint Thompson as phony, calling him a "Gucci-wearing, Lincoln-driving, Perrier-drinking, Grey Poupon–spreading millionaire Washington special-interest lobbyist." But voters loved the truck. They didn't seem to mind that the candidate often switched from a sedan to the truck just miles from his appearances. "We couldn't believe anyone was buying it ," says Kopp.

There are a lot of good, hard working conservatives running for the Republican nomination in 2008. Hunter, Romney, Tommy Thompson, Giuliani and others. Why settle for style over substance?

New Gallup Poll

August 17, 2007

New Gallup Poll: Romney Posts Modest Gains

Majority of Republicans unaware of his Iowa victory, however


by Frank Newport

 

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has posted modest gains over the last two weeks, both in his favorable rating and in his positioning in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. One presumption is that Romney's gains reflect the visibility that followed his win in the Iowa Republican Party straw poll last weekend, although data in the new Gallup Poll show that only a third of Republicans nationwide are directly aware that Romney won this unofficial contest.

Republican Horse Race

Romney now receives 14% of Republicans' votes when they are asked whom they would like as their party's presidential nominee, up from 8% in each of the two previous Gallup Polls conducted in July and early August. Romney's current positioning puts him slightly behind front-runner Rudy Giuliani and unannounced candidate Fred Thompson, but slightly ahead of John McCain, who slips to 11% in this poll.

Which of these candidates would you be most likely
to support for the Republican nomination?
among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents


 

2007 Jun 11-14

2007 Jul 6-8

2007 Jul 12-15

2007 Aug 3-5

2007 Aug 13-16


 

 

 

 

 

Giuliani

29

32

33

33

32

F. Thompson

21

21

21

21

19

Romney

8

9

8

8

14

McCain

20

16

16

16

11

Huckabee

3

2

2

2

4

Paul

2

*

3

2

3

Hunter

2

3

1

1

2

Hagel

1

1

*

1

1

Brownback

2

1

2

1

1

Tancredo

1

2

*

1

1

T. Thompson

2

2

1

2

n/a

Gilmore

1

*

*

n/a

n/a

Pataki

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Other

*

*

1

2

1

None/No opinion

8

10

11

10

11

 * Less than 0.5%

Romney's positioning is not a new high point for the former Massachusetts governor; he was at 14% in a Gallup Poll in early June. At that time, however, McCain had a clear claim on second place, while Romney was roughly tied with Thompson for third. The accompanying graph shows the relative positioning of the four leading candidates since February.

These data are based on the Republican ballot and do not include preferences for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. When the ballot is further re-calculated to reflect only the currently declared candidates (thus excluding not only Gingrich but also Thompson and Chuck Hagel), Giuliani is supported by 39% of Republicans, Romney by 17%, McCain by 15%, and Mike Huckabee -- who finished second in the Iowa straw poll -- by 7%. Giuliani and McCain did not participate in the straw poll.

Favorable Rating

Romney's favorable rating has jumped from 22% to 33% over the past two weeks, while his unfavorable rating has fallen from 31% to 24%.

Romney's favorable rating had been in the 22% to 23% range over the previous three polls conducted in July and August, with a higher unfavorable than favorable rating in each of these polls. Although his favorable rating had been as high as 27% in May, the current 33% is his highest to date.

Forty-nine percent of Republicans now have a favorable opinion of Romney, compared with 36% in the prior poll. At the same time, Romney's unfavorable rating among Republicans dropped from 20% to 16%. All in all, Romney's name identification among Republicans -- the percentage who have an opinion of him -- jumped by nine points over the last two weeks.

Still, despite these gains for Romney, his favorable rating among Republicans remains below Giuliani's and McCain's, and although he shares similar favorable ratings with Thompson, his unfavorable rating is more than twice as high. Romney is, however, better known than Thompson (despite the latter's film and TV exposure), and much better known than Huckabee or Sam Brownback.

Opinion Ratings Among Republicans of
Six Republican Current or Potential Presidential Candidates

Aug. 13-16, 2007


Favorable

Unfavorable

Don't know/
No opinion


%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

77

14

9

John McCain

59

28

13

Fred Thompson

50

7

43

Mitt Romney

49

16

35

Mike Huckabee

30

8

62

Sam Brownback

14

13

73

Awareness of the Iowa Straw Poll Victory

Romney won the Iowa straw poll a week ago with 32% of the vote of Republicans who cast their straw-poll ballots, followed by Huckabee with 18%. One could assume that Romney's image and vote gains in the Aug. 13-16 Gallup Poll reflect in part the positive visibility he received as a result of that victory. That may be the case, but a separate question asked at the end of the poll shows that only a third of Republicans could name Romney as the winner in Iowa.

The change in Romney's positioning in the current poll could in theory have occurred only among Republicans who were aware of his victory in Iowa, but there is no way to know that for sure because there is no way to trend this group to the pre-straw poll survey.  

The sample size of Republicans who were aware that Romney had won the Iowa straw poll is quite small (n=178), but it is of interest to look at the vote preferences among this group. The data show that Thompson has a slight lead over Romney among this group, with Giuliani slightly further behind. This finding may reflect the pre-existing characteristics of the group most likely to follow GOP politics closely, or it may be a result of the characteristics of those who were paying attention to the Iowa straw poll specifically. But it is true that Romney (and Thompson) does better among Republicans who were aware of Romney's victory in Iowa than among those who were not.

Summary

All in all, the general finding is that Romney has enjoyed a modest improvement in his standing among Republicans, and that this improvement coincides with the time of his victory in the Iowa straw poll.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,019 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 13-16, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

From Michael Tam's Blog

Michael Tams is a great guy and has a great blog. Go check it out!

Friday, August 17, 2007

The Illinois Straw Poll and the Paulaholics

So I went to the State Fair on Thursday - took a valuable personal day to make my first trip to Springfield. The Fair itself was an experience, and something I will do again. To my great shame, again I acknowledge this was my first trip to Springfield, and I'll be sure to soon visit again and check out some fun things I'd like to do there. Like this, for example. Who's with me??

At the straw poll, I had a couple of encounters with the young people I've taken to calling the Paulaholics. Ron's kids, in other words. His literature claims that he's had 4,000 babies (or maybe he just delivered them?). Anyway, although Mom always said if you don't have anything nice to say...

I've never seen a more unwashed and angry group of people in my life. Honest to God, I had to keep reminding myself that these weren't liberals. It appears that Paul draws heavy support from the "legalize marijuana" wing of the Libertarian Party; some of the older folks at the fair remarked that it felt "like the 60s" all over again. I saw more long hair, beards, Birkenstocks, tattoos and piercings than I have seen in a long time. And they regularly were shouting to drown out other speakers. At one point - I am not making this up - organizers at the fair had to ask Paul's supporters to move away from the stage where IL GOP officials were making speeches: they were holding up signs to get on camera and they were the only ones so etiquette-inept to fail to realize that this was in poor taste. I attended my last heavy-metal concert with my younger brother in 2000, and the Paulaholics could have learned some manners from your average concert-goer. It was that bad.

And then it got worse. I talked a little bit to one Paulaholic and posed an interesting question to him. Suppose Romney got the nomination, I inquired, would you support him? No, came the answer. Why not, I asked. Because that's a vote that would send me to hell, came the reply. This person then informed me of the fact that Mormonism is a false religion, and when I mentioned that I wasn't Mormon but Catholic, tried to engage me in a debate about "faith" vs. "faith and works." As politely as I could, I told him that we could sit there all day and quote Scripture to each other, but it wasn't going to make a difference in anything other than what time we went to bed.

It's easy to get swept up in something you're passionate about, I get that. But the general rabidity that came from the Paul campaign was unlike anything I witnessed from the Guiliani, Thompson or Romney people.

Oh, and one of the Paulaholics - he wasn't a day over 18 - told me that Paul is for the Constitution. By sheer force of will alone I resisted the urge to ask if he had plans for it other than to roll it up and smoke it.


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