So how much did this weekend's little event in Ames, Iowa matter? On the one hand, you had some guy at the Beauchamp Gazette gushing that "it's hard to overstate the significance of Huckabee's performance here" before predicting that Huckabee-mania would swamp the nation like a global-warming induced tsunami. On the other hand, you had analysts like John Podhoretz bluntly opining, "I hate to be nasty, but anybody who takes the Ames Straw Poll results seriously is an idiot. A bunch of people spent ludicrous amounts of money to bus-and-truck 14,000 people to a big picnic, and the guy who spent the most bought the win with a mammoth 4516 votes. Goshers! 4,516 votes."
Yes, unduly nasty, but his comments hit close to the mark. When all the frontrunners bailed on Ames except for Mitt Romney, the straw poll instantly became a freak show for fried-Twinkee craving political obsessives. Mitt Romney did what he had to do. He won and continued to show his commitment to Iowa. After McCain, Rudy and Fred decided not to attend, I bet the Romney campaign wouldn't have minded if the Ames people called the whole thing off. Would have saved a few bucks, and it's not like he needed the boost.
For those who say Romney's looking less juggernaut-ish than he did before Ames because of Huckabee's second place finish, I'd ask when precisely did the Romney campaign turn into a juggernaut. He's still a relatively obscure figure with roughly half the name recognition of Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton. As Hugh pointed out over the weekend, the Romney campaign has met every goal he has set. But the will goals get harder to reach to as the calendar progresses. Winning in Iowa once looked like a long shot for Romney. Not anymore. Winning in South Carolina and Florida still look tough. He's got to keep moving forward. I'm sure the campaign knows this. Mitt ain't exactly the presumptive nominee just yet.
ONCE AGAIN, GENERALLY SPEAKING, J-POD IS RIGHT. Since the Ames event wasn't competitive, it became a non-event. Does anyone who knows anything about Republican politics think Mike Huckabee has a chance to win this race? Republicans don't nominate inexperienced people; our least qualified nominee of the past 60 years was George W. Bush, and he had been Governor of a large state for 6 years and he had the proper bloodlines.
Huckabee seems like a great guy, and he's run a nice campaign, but his resume is too slight to get a seat at the top-tier table. Yes, he's been Governor of Arkansas; Republicans don't think the last experiment of electing someone with that background worked out particularly well. By the way, the resume-thing is the reason Duncan Hunter hasn't been able to break through, even though he's very impressive. In the eyes of the Republican electorate, he's just a congressman, and I can't remember someone with a background like that even seriously contending for the Republican nomination.
As far as the other candidates are concerned, the Ames results are also a non-event. You could say the results prove that Ron Paul isn't a serious candidate for the Republican nomination. But you know what? If Paul had won the straw poll with 80% of the vote on Saturday, his Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs campaign would still be a non-starter. Republicans aren't going to nominate Ron Paul for the presidency. We're not even going to consider it.
Some people say the fact that Brownback came in third means he can't get any traction. Really now - don't the facts that he hasn't raised any money or budged at all in any polls more strongly suggest what a failure his campaign has been? I know Patrick says the Brownback campaign has "rock stars like Leon Wolf and Billy Valentine running their e-efforts." Perhaps that shows the value of having "e-effort" rock stars. Campaigns are big things, and "e-efforts" remain a small part of the big picture. Even the best e-efforts can't overcome a terminally lame candidate.
The Brownback campaign has been a vile little thing, attacking other candidates from way back in the pack, violating the 11th Commandment constantly. Sam Brownback appears to be a deluded man, laboring under the impression that he actually has a chance in this race and that the ends therefore justify the means. Yes, the same Sam Brownback who switched his vote on McCain/Kennedy in a span of minutes to be on the winning side, an act caught for posterity on C-SPAN, actually thinks he has a chance to be the next President of the United States. It's nice that T. Thompson and Gilmoar dropped out, but Brownback has been the least distinguished member of the field. The race will benefit from his absence.
One could say that we should be thankful for Ames because it clarified some things. But for the last time, J-Pod is right. It was a non-event, and the campaign looks exactly the way it did on Friday. Rudy's the frontrunner, Romney's the strong second and Thompson's the wildcard. There's probably room in the top tier for another candidate, but none of the existing lower-tier candidates have the stuff to capitalize on the opportunity.
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