Mentioned Podcast
Our society teeters dangerously close to the precipice if we continue making decisions based on narratives, biases, anecdotes, and infotainment. It's time we pivot towards a more pragmatic approach - a political party that leans on reason and cost-benefit analysis to steer its decision-making process.
Malcolm Gladwell's insightful podcast delves into the intricacies of public folly. Instances like the Toyota acceleration debacle wouldn't occur if we prioritized deliberation and rationality over raw emotion.
Sure, a billion-dollar fine for Toyota and a few months of fear may not signal the end of the world. But it serves as an alarming illustration of how misinformation and hysteria can proliferate unchecked. We must learn from these episodes and strive for a more rational, evidence-based society.
Curbing Hysteria: The Need for Reason and Cost-Benefit Analysis in Decision Making
Redefining Democracy: The Case for a More Informed and Inclusive Voting System
In the realm of political thought, a provocative idea has emerged - should we lower the voting age to zero but weigh votes based on voters' understanding of relevant information? This concept was recently discussed by Robin Hanson:
"Can we extend voting to younger ages, but also weigh votes via informedness?" (Link to source)
That would combine the liberal and conservative approaches, such as from @jasonfbrennan.
Let me clarify - I'm not advocating for an immediate drop of the voting age to zero and the introduction of a test to rank votes. Instead, I'm more interested in questioning the roots of our current voting age limit. Is it a blanket assumption that older individuals possess more knowledge? That's certainly not always the case. So, why not consider testing knowledge directly, rather than using age as a loose proxy?
One might question, "Who gets to decide what it takes to be informed?" A fair counter, but couldn't the same be asked of our current system, "Who gets to decide how old is old enough to vote?"
This line of thought inevitably leads to another question: Should we judge individuals who are uninformed? It's not always their fault - they may have had poor educational opportunities or lack positive role models. This brings us to the crux of the matter: who bears responsibility if one's life is less than ideal? Traditional conservative thought posits that individuals should largely be held accountable for their own circumstances, under the belief that society functions more effectively when we assume the existence of free will.
The question I propose is this: "If you are uneducated, is that more a result of your circumstances or your age?" It seems unjust to penalize young, knowledgeable individuals by depriving them of their right to vote. In contrast, a person's lack of knowledge may be more attributable to their own choices than a child's youth is to their own.
Now, consider this: do we even need to vote for representatives anymore? In the age of the internet, we could potentially create an online platform for direct democracy. We could use a system similar to Wikipedia, where people propose costs, benefits, and risks for each policy. Everyone could post reasons to agree or disagree with the likelihood of these outcomes, allowing users to rank arguments. This dynamic could be continually updated as better arguments or new information emerge.
However, we should acknowledge that people are often resistant to change. Despite voicing a desire for progress, many people are inherently uncomfortable with it. But I firmly believe that reason will eventually triumph, though not without a certain amount of inevitable trial and error.
Creating a political party that operates on open cost/benefit/risk analysis might sound outlandish, but consider these points:
- There's no reason for the federal government to act without first conducting a cost-benefit analysis.
- There's no reason for such analysis to be hidden from public view.
- Wikipedia has demonstrated the efficacy of group efforts, provided quality is rewarded.
- There's no reason not to base our conclusions on the strength of the evidence.
As for the concern about implementing online democracy and using algorithms for decision making, consider the success of Wikipedia and Google. Both have demonstrated that algorithms can effectively analyze and prioritize quality content. The ultimate truth is that our conclusions should be based on the strength of the evidence.
In conclusion, I'm not a blind believer in technology as the panacea for all our woes. I have faith in reason and order. I believe that we can reason together, if we are organized. We need to lay out all the arguments, data, causal relationships, and scientific studies, link them, and vet them thoroughly. With the right tools, people can solve their problems. That's whyI'm a firm advocate for Direct Democracy.
In this potential new world of direct democracy, the question of who gets to decide what it takes to be informed could be answered fairly by the collective. We could implement a graded system, wherein if you match your parents' score, your vote is weighted 100%. Score twice as high? Your vote counts for 200%.
Now, some may argue that the use of algorithms in decision-making is a dangerous path. However, our current systems, such as the electoral college and primaries, already utilize algorithms. A direct democracy, even in its simplest form, cannot function without some sort of algorithmic assistance. In this context, I argue that an online democracy, utilizing algorithms and clear reasoning, could flourish, much like Wikipedia has.
Is there a potential for abuse in such a system? Certainly. However, Google has proven capable of outsmarting link farms, and Wikipedia has managed to maintain a high standard of quality through community efforts. I firmly believe in the strength of evidence and sound logic. We can identify and account for bias, we can discern causal relationships, we can dissect problems into individual components, and we can collect and analyze reasons to agree on the same page. Through the teachings of conflict resolution, we can focus on the interests of conflicting sides, rather than their positions, helping us navigate towards resolution.
To those who argue that reliance on technology is a fallacy, I would argue that I'm not placing blind faith in technology itself. I have faith in reason and order. I believe that we can reason together, if we organize. We need to lay out all the arguments, data, causal relationships, and scientific studies, link them, and vet them thoroughly. This approach requires a highly systematic and organized method to address our problems.
Ultimately, the goal is to equip people with the tools they need to solve problems. By bridging the gap between liberal and conservative approaches, as proposed by thinkers such as @jasonfbrennan, we could create a more balanced, fair, and effective political system. I believe that with the right tools and an openness to change, society can advance towards a more reasoned, more democratic future.
Towards a More Nuanced Understanding of Capitalism: Building Bridges, Not Walls
We indeed need to educate everyone about the gulags and the failures of communism, but simply mocking or belittling those who contribute to forums like LateStageCapitalism is not the solution. Winning hearts and minds is not about outdoing the other side in low-quality, over-simplistic rhetoric. It's about out-thinking them, out-facting them, and engaging them with empathy and respect.
One common critique that often surfaces in these discussions is the issue of monopolies. While opponents of capitalism criticize its potential for creating business monopolies, they often overlook the potential for monopolies in government. Transparency and competition should be encouraged in both sectors. We should unite in our common goal to fight corruption and oppose the concentration of power, the real enemy of free societies.
It's essential to question why people would want to give more power to the government, knowing that a leader like Trump could potentially wield that power. We must be consistent in our belief systems, advocating for less government interference regardless of who is in power.
In our democracy, why does the president have the power to pardon or dictate trade? Shouldn't we prioritize trade with the least corrupt or most free countries? As advocates of capitalism and democracy, we need to ask these questions and strive for answers that align with our principles.
On this subreddit, LateStageCommunism, we need to work not just to debunk misconceptions about communism but also to convert people to a more nuanced understanding of capitalism. This can be achieved by building on common beliefs and jointly fighting corruption and power concentration.
A fantastic resource for this perspective is "The Cost-Benefit Revolution" by Cass Sunstein. The book argues that government policies should be based on careful consideration of their costs and benefits rather than on intuition, popular opinion, or pressure from interest groups. This principle, which could be found here, aligns seamlessly with our advocacy for reason-based decision-making.
In my view, the goal of capitalism is to remove arbitrary power from government officials who decide our lives behind closed doors. We need science and reason to predict the outcomes of specific regulations. If a regulation fails to achieve its intended result, it should be automatically revoked. Good intentions do not justify harmful results.
Capitalism rewards effort and allows for failure, but it should not reward the idle descendants of successful ancestors indefinitely. Each generation should start from a relatively equal footing, promoting fairness and competition.
I consider myself a moderate. I believe in a capitalist approach for adults, where individuals are responsible for their own success or failure. However, I'm more of a socialist when it comes to children, advocating for equal opportunities for all, regardless of their background.
While I'm critical of well-intentioned government programs that inadvertently cause harm, I believe that intelligent analysis can determine which programs and regulations truly benefit society. The person responsible for making these decisions should be ruthlessly practical and concerned with real-world results.
Capitalism is often accused of being a utopian dream, but I believe it's the closest we've come to a system that works in the real world. It prioritizes efficiency, aligns motivation with results, and rewards hard work. It's not about worshipping a doctrine but about improving society based on evidence and reason. My politics are rooted in reality and the desire to see improvements in society, not emotional needs or tribal allegiances.
We should reject radicalism, which is the rejection of the ordinary, the imperfect, and the real for an unattainable utopia. We should focus on what works, continually improve it, and respect our history. We don't need to destroy to rebuild but to enhance what we have based on reason and facts.
I encountered comments on this subreddit that resonate with my beliefs. One comment suggested that we're united by our dislike of communism and that there's no point in discussing our disagreements. I believe we can balance unity with open discussion as long as our goal is improvement and not division. Let's not fall into the trap of fostering hatred, as was seen with the Russian-paid trolls who fanned the flames of division. We can win with honesty, openness, and positivity.
As for the comment that seemed to dismiss the idea of fixing capitalism, I understand the sentiment. However, acknowledging the imperfections of our system is crucial to its continual improvement. It doesn't mean we're betraying our beliefs, but rather that we're committed to making them better.
To the person who labeled my thoughts as "commie talk," I assure you I am not a communist. I have worked for moderate Republican campaigns and strongly believe in capitalism. However, I also believe in maintaining an open dialogue and not turning our space into an echo chamber.
In conclusion, our love for capitalism should not be a blind devotion to an unachievable utopia but a commitment to a system that we can continuously improve. Let's respect our past, acknowledge our present, and work towards a better future, guided by reason and facts. The only group worth being a part of values diverse perspectives and follows the side with the best arguments. In the end, we're all in this together, striving to create a world that is just, fair, and prosperous for all.
If you're interested in joining the conversation or learning more, you can visit GroupIntel or check out the IdeaStockExchange. Let's keep the dialogue open, respectful, and focused on creating a better world.
Harnessing Simulations and Collective Intelligence for Effective Leadership Selection
Before any election, potential candidates could be tested on their understanding of key areas such as economics and conflict resolution. If we don't test candidates before they are elected, we could at least educate them after they have won. For instance, they could spend two years prior to taking office being taught by the leading experts in various fields.
We must remember that elected officials are public servants - they work for us, not the other way around. In a well-designed simulation, virtual citizens could react to economic downturns, corruption, and infringements on freedoms, mirroring real-world responses. The simulation could incorporate real-time data on trade, stock market trends, inflation, and debt, along with "if/then" assumptions from reliable sources like the Congressional Budget Office.
If the simulation is accurate enough, it could potentially inform our choice of president. Tens of thousands of individuals could engage with the game, and their collective intelligence could help identify the most effective leadership styles and policies. This process is reminiscent of the film "The Last Starfighter", where exceptional performance in a video game results in real-world opportunities.
Transparency is crucial in this process. We should be making decisions based on open, understandable algorithms, not secretive backroom deals. After all, artificial intelligence has outperformed humans in complex games like Chess and Go. Even Watson, IBM's AI, beat humans at Jeopardy. If the inputs into these algorithms are transparent, and the weighting of costs, benefits, and risks are logically defined, we can transition from simulations to directly informing policy. We could cast votes on our top priorities, and then use data-driven algorithms to pursue the most effective solutions.
Unfortunately, our current political climate often lacks this level of transparency and logical consistency. We see influential figures making claims about policy impacts without providing clear causal links or evidence. As citizens, we often lack the time or expertise to fully evaluate the potential outcomes of millions of different policy options.
In our data-rich society, we need to harness this wealth of information rather than trying to keep track of everything in our "meat-brains". We should not be misled by 30-second lobbying pitches, but rather guided by clear, evidence-based reasoning.
Our current approach is not working as well as it could. It's time to explore new ways to promote better politicians, encourage informed debates, and foster effective policy-making. By leveraging simulations and collective intelligence, we could make significant strides towards these goals. This future is not only possible; it is within our reach.
a) Assumptions one must reject to disagree with this belief:
- Simulations and collective intelligence cannot provide beneficial input to human decision-making processes.
- Collective intelligence cannot enhance our political decision-making capabilities.
- Algorithms and simulations cannot reflect and predict real-world outcomes accurately.
- Transparency in decision-making algorithms is not beneficial or feasible.
b) Alternate expressions of this belief:
Hashtags: #AIforPresidency, #SimulateToLead, #AlgorithmicGovernance
Mottos/Expressions:
- "Democracy 2.0: Powered by Collective Wisdom"
- "Simulations for Better Leadership: Let Data Drive Us Forward"
- "Collective Intelligence: Because Together, We Know Better"
- "In Algorithms We Trust: Revolutionizing Leadership with AI"
- "From Backroom Deals to Transparent Algorithms: A New Era of Leadership"
c) Criteria to demonstrate the strength of this belief:
- Evidence of successful use of simulations and collective intelligence in non-political domains (e.g., economics, logistics, AI beating humans in complex games).
- Availability of robust, transparent algorithms that can incorporate vast amounts of data and accurately predict outcomes.
- Demonstration of the system’s resilience against potential manipulations or biases.
- Examples where human leadership has failed due to limitations that this system could overcome.
d) Shared interests or values with potential dissenters that could promote dialogue and evidence-based understanding:
- Belief in democracy and the value of informed decision-making.
- Desire for transparency in political processes.
- Interest in leveraging technology for societal improvement.
e) Key differences or obstacles between agreeing and disagreeing parties that need addressing for mutual understanding:
- Skepticism about the ability of AI and simulations to account for the complexity and unpredictability of human behavior.
- Concerns about the loss of human touch and emotional intelligence in leadership.
- Fear of misuse of technology, leading to potential dystopian outcomes.
- The technical literacy required to understand and trust the system.
f) Strategies for encouraging dialogue, respect, and use of preliminary tools to gauge the evidence in this debate:
- Engage in open forums, debates, and panel discussions featuring experts from both sides.
- Use simulations as tools for education and demonstration, rather than as definitive decision-makers.
- Ensure transparency and robustness in the development and operation of the AI system.
- Promote media literacy and understanding of AI and its implications.
- Encourage exploration and understanding of this concept through various media (books, videos, websites, podcasts).
Logical arguments:
- The complexity of modern governance requires tools that can manage vast amounts of data and make predictions, something at which simulations excel.
- Collective intelligence leverages the knowledge and expertise of many, reducing the risk of decisions being influenced by individual biases.
- Simulations allow for risk-free experimentation, enabling us to anticipate potential problems.
Supporting evidence (data, studies):
- The Good Judgment Project, a study that showed that forecasts by large groups can be surprisingly accurate.
- Studies such as “An Experimental Study of Collective Intelligence: Large Groups Outperform Small Groups in an Art Contest” which demonstrate the power of collective intelligence.
Supporting books:
- "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki.
- "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
Supporting videos (movies, YouTube, TikTok):
Supporting organizations and their Websites:
Supporting podcasts:
Unbiased experts:
- James Surowiecki, author of "The Wisdom of Crowds"
- Philip E. Tetlock, co-author of "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction"
Benefits of belief acceptance (ranked by Maslow categories):
- Self-actualization: Enhances democratic participation and encourages critical thinking.
- Esteem: Promotes a society where decisions are made based on evidence and collective wisdom, fostering trust.
- Love/Belonging: Encourages collaboration and collective problem-solving.
- Safety: Predictable, data-driven leadership provides societal stability.
- Physiological: Better policies can lead to improved public health and welfare.
Assumptions required to accept this belief and its likely validity:
- The belief that collective intelligence can yield better results than individual decision-making, supported by various studies including the Good Judgment Project.
- The belief that simulations can accurately model complex systems, supported by their successful use in fields like meteorology and economics.
- The belief that AI can play a useful role in governance, supported by its successful application in various complex decision-making domains.