Aug 21, 2007

Romney Upswing

Mitt Romney: Putting Conservative Principles to Work in Health Care

Mitt Romney: Putting Conservative Principles to Work in Health Care
By Jim Talent
Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Each candidate in the 2008 Presidential race will undoubtedly offer a health care plan. Those plans will include initiatives ranging from a single payer system, to employer mandates, to tax incentives for the purchase of private health insurance. But only one candidate has actually done something, waded into the issue and emerged with a successful plan that does not resort to one-size-fits-all, government run "Hillary Care." That innovative candidate is former Governor Mitt Romney.

On April 12, 2006, Governor Romney signed into law landmark legislation ensuring that every resident of Massachusetts would have access to affordable, portable, quality private health insurance – without higher taxes, an employer mandate or a government takeover of health care.



Republican presidential hopeful, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney talks with reporters after speaking at a gathering of potential supporters, Friday, July 27, 2007, in Adel, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Massachusetts was afflicted with many of the same problems that plague the health care system across the country. There was no easy way to buy affordable insurance except through an employer. Without the employer option, it just was not feasible for many people to buy health insurance. As a result, they had to resort to emergency room care and the taxpayers ended up footing the bill. People choosing their health care provider could not get critical information about the cost or quality of care, and excessive state regulations reduced choices and drove up costs.

When Governor Romney decided to tackle the double-digit annual increases in health insurance costs, the average uninsured resident in Massachusetts had to pay $335 a month for private health insurance, which did not include coverage for prescription drugs and featured a $5,000 deductible. Moreover, the state was spending over $1.3 billion a year on "free care" for the uninsured.

Governor Romney actually got the Democrat-controlled legislature to enact a plan that addressed these problems. He took the time to understand what makes private health insurance markets work and transformed the market in his state from one that was government-controlled to one that allows competition to flourish.

Governor Romney's health care plan featured a number of reforms. First, his plan deregulated the overburdened Massachusetts insurance market to reduce the cost of private insurance, while giving consumers more choice from a broader range of plans. Second, the plan addressed the problems caused by the fact that many people could not get healthcare through their employers and could not afford it on the individual market. Third, he redirected the millions of dollars that were being spent on free emergency room care and used it instead to help those who truly were not able to afford private health insurance.

Finally, Governor Romney recognized that competition is the key to the success of any market – so doing what no one had ever done before, he created a new market where consumers can go to pick the health care plan that suits them best. Called the "Connector," this marketplace is not a new regulatory agency or insurance purchasing pool. It is a place that gives people access to more choices, better information, and lower costs in selecting a private health insurance plan. The Connector also provides a way for individuals to purchase insurance with the same pre-tax advantage given to those buying insurance through their employers. Even better, the Connector gives people the chance to buy private insurance independent of their jobs, so that they don't have to worry about losing their coverage when they change employers.

But Governor Romney's reforms did not stop at reducing the cost of insurance today. He also tackled a number of reforms that will help reduce the rise in health care costs over the long-term. His plan included medical transparency provisions that allow consumers to compare the quality of hospitals and providers, while tracking and recording the costs associated with the care they provide. The reforms also instituted measures to encourage the use of electronic health records, which will reduce medical errors and lower costs.

What's been the result of all these reforms? Although the reforms were signed into law just over a year ago, the changes are dramatic. The same uninsured individual whose choice was formerly limited to a policy with a $335 a month insurance premium with no drug benefits and a $5,000 deductible now can purchase quality private insurance, which includes coverage for prescription drugs, office and emergency room visits, and a $2,000 deductible, for $175 per month. Between July 1, 2006 and May 1, 2007, nearly 125,000 previously uninsured residents of Massachusetts got health insurance coverage.

Taxpayer-funded "free care" is falling at double-digit rates, because the Romney reforms no longer allow people to let others pay for their health care if they can afford their own health insurance. Those who previously couldn't afford health insurance now have the help they need to get access to affordable, quality, portable private coverage. And, as he promised, Governor Romney did all this without raising taxes and without a government take-over of health care.

All of Governor Romney's reforms are consistent with the goal of making private health insurance more available, flexible, and affordable. That is why many conservative organizations have hailed Governor Romney's health care reforms. The Heritage Foundation called it "one of the most promising strategies out there." Massachusetts Citizens For Limited Taxation said that Romney's plan was a responsible solution to America's health care challenges. And the Ethan Allen Institute praised Governor Romney's plan because of its focus on personal responsibility and choice.

The bipartisanship, innovation, conservative statesmanship and creativity he exhibited confirms my view that he is the kind of leader this nation needs.

Former Senator Jim Talent (R-MO) is Chairman of the Romney for President Domestic Policy Task Force.

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Mitt Romney's Record on Economic Issues

Mitt Romney's Record on Economic Issues

Club for Growth Releases Fifth Presidential White Paper
Romney's Record: Promise and Puzzlement

Washington - Today, the Club for Growth released its presidential white paper on Republican presidential candidate Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (see PDF or HTML). The fifth in a series of white papers on the pro-growth records of presidential candidates, the attached report provides an extensive summary of Mitt Romney's economic record from his unsuccessful run for the U.S. Senate to his single term as governor of Massachusetts.


"Governor Romney's economic record contains a mixture of pro-growth accomplishments and some troublesome positions that beg to be explained," said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. "While his record on taxes, spending, and entitlement reform is flawed, it is, on balance, encouraging, especially given the liberal Massachusetts Legislature. His record on trade, school choice, regulations and tort reform all indicate a strong respect for the power of market solutions. At the same time, Governor Romney's history is marked by statements at odds with his gubernatorial record and his campaign rhetoric."

Romney's strident opposition to the flat tax; his refusal to endorse the Bush tax cuts in 2003; his support for various minor tax hikes; and his once-radically bad views on campaign finance reform all cast some doubts on the extent and durability of his commitment to limited-government, pro-growth policies. His landmark steps in the healthcare arena also exhibit a mixture of desirable pro-free market efforts combined with a regrettable willingness to accept, if not embrace, a massive new regulatory regime.

"While Governor Romney still needs to explain some of his past positions," Mr. Toomey continued, "given his overall record as governor and the strong pro-growth positions he has taken on the campaign trail, we are reasonably optimistic that, as President, Mitt Romney would generally advocate a pro-growth agenda."





The Romney Record: Promise and Puzzlement


Taxes

The Club for Growth is committed to lower taxes-especially lower tax rates- across the board. Lower taxes on work, savings, and investments lead to greater levels of these activities, thus encouraging greater economic growth.

During his 2002 campaign for governor, Mitt Romney pledged to balance the budget without raising taxes and touted his fulfillment of that pledge throughout his term. While it is true that Governor Romney did not impose any broad-based tax hikes despite pressure from liberal special interests and an inherited budget deficit, he imposed a slew of fee hikes and tax "loophole" closures, together with spending cuts, in order to eliminate the budget gap.

The largest of these was $259 million worth of fee hikes in FY 2004, the bulk of which came from higher Registry of Deeds fees[1 ]. Smaller fee hikes, including higher charges for boaters and golfers, were imposed in FY 2003[2] and FY 2005 [3]. Romney also sought $128 million worth of so-called tax loophole closures for FY 2004[ 4]; $70 million for FY 2005[5]; and $170 million for FY 2006, which were later reduced to $85 million due to backlash from business leaders [6].

That said, Governor Romney's single term contained some solid efforts to promote pro-growth tax policy. In May of 2004, Mitt Romney proposed cutting the state's income-tax rate from 5.3% to 5.0% -- a measure Massachusetts voters had approved in a 2000 referendum, but was blocked by the State Legislature in 2002. The proposed tax cut would have provided $675 million in relief over a year and a half[7]. When the Massachusetts Legislature refused to budge, Romney proposed the same tax cut in 2005 [8] and again in 2006 with no success[ 9].

Romney was more successful when he took on the State Legislature for imposing a retroactive tax on capital gains earnings. After a bloody fight, Romney succeeded in passing a bill preventing the capital gains tax from being applied retroactively, resulting in a rebate of $275 million for capital gains taxes collected in 2002[10]. Governor Romney also signed legislation that provided property tax relief to seniors [11] and legislation establishing a two-day tax-free shopping holiday in 2005.[ 12]

Governor Romney's history on tax policy is scattered with inconsistencies. As a candidate for governor, Romney refused to sign an anti-tax pledge distributed by the local Citizens for Limited Taxation. He opposed Ballot Question 1 to eliminate the state income tax and proposed an auto excise tax on SUVs and a greenfields tax on the development of ocean space.[13] In 2003, the Governor refused to endorse the Bush tax cuts, earning the praise of Massachusetts liberal congressman Barney Frank[14], and was even open to a federal gas tax hike[ 15]. His strident opposition to the flat tax is most curious and difficult to explain since Romney wasn't a political candidate at the time. In 1996, he ran a series of newspaper ads in Boston, New Hampshire, and Iowa denouncing the 17% flat tax proposed by then presidential candidate Steve Forbes as a "tax cut for fat cats".[16] Even today, Romney continues to oppose the flat tax with harsh language, calling the tax "unfair." [17]

Overall, Romney's record on tax policy is mixed. His record is marred by questionable statements and positions, and his fee hikes and "loophole" closures are troubling. However, his support for broad-based tax cuts in liberal Massachusetts together with his enthusiastic embrace of the Bush tax cuts on the campaign trail offers hope that Governor Romney's previous ambivalence on tax policy is more a function of Massachusetts politics than his core beliefs.

 

Spending

The Club for Growth is committed to reducing government spending. Less spending enhances economic growth by enabling lower taxes and diminishing the economically inefficient political allocation of resources.

Governor Romney's record on spending must be considered within the liberal political context in which he governed. The Massachusetts Legislature was (and continues to be) dominated by Democrats more interested in raising taxes than cutting government programs. Throughout his tenure, Romney's proposed cuts were met with opposition while the vast majority of his vetoes were relegated to the graveyard of overrides.

On balance, his record comes out more positive than negative, especially when one considers that average spending increased only 2.22% over his four years, well below the population plus inflation benchmark of nearly 3%.[18]

Governor Romney receives credit for actual spending in FY 2003, even though he entered office halfway into the fiscal year, because of the tremendous spending cuts he forced down the Legislature's throat in January of 2003. Facing a $650 million deficit he inherited from the previous administration, Romney convinced the unfriendly State Legislature to grant him unilateral power to make budget cuts and unveiled $343 million in cuts to cities, healthcare, and state agencies.[19] This fiscal discipline continued in 2004, in which Romney continued to slash "nearly every part of state government" to close a $3 billion deficit.[20]

At the same time, Governor Romney clearly loosened the purse strings for FY 2006 and in his proposed budget for FY 2007 (final spending for FY 2007 is not yet available, and is partly the responsibility of Romney's successor, Governor Deval Patrick). With surpluses flowing into the state coffers, the Romney administration sought to undo some of the success it had achieved during the initial lean years.[21] The result was a budget proposal for 2007 that was a whopping 10.12% larger than the preceding fiscal year.[22]

To his credit, Romney attempted to cut down on government spending by streamlining many duplicative and wasteful elements of Beacon Hill. Some of his more ambitious proposals were rejected by his über-liberal Legislature. These include: his plans to overhaul the wasteful Boston Municipal Court and close underused courthouses; merge the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority with the Highway Department; decentralize management of the University of Massachusetts; streamline the Alcoholic Beverage Control Commission; and phase out the obsolete Worcester State Hospital where employees outnumber patients nearly 3 to 1.[23]

Governor Romney successfully consolidated the social service and public health bureaucracy and restructured the Metropolitan District Commission.[24] Romney even eliminated half of the executive branch's press positions, saving $1.2 million.[ 25] He also used his emergency fiscal powers to make $425 million worth of cuts in 2006, taking particular aim at local earmarks, instead of allowing the Legislature to dip into the state's $1.2 billion rainy day fund.[26] While there is no question that Governor Romney's initial fiscal discipline slacked off in the second half of his term, on balance, he imposed some much-needed fiscal discipline on a very liberal Massachusetts Legislature.

 

Free Trade

Free trade is a vital policy for maximizing economic growth. In recent decades, America's commitment to expanding trade has resulted in lower costs for consumers, job growth, and higher levels of productivity and innovation.

Although Mitt Romney's practical record on trade is scant, his rhetoric has been supportive, demonstrating an understanding of the crucial relationship between economic growth and free trade. At a speech before top technology executives in 2005, Romney encouraged U.S. companies to sell their products abroad, rather than turning toward protectionism: "We must move ahead in technology and patents. I don't like losing any jobs but we'll see new opportunities created selling products there. We'll have a net increase in economic activity, just as we did with free trade. It's tempting to want to protect our markets and stay closed. But at some point it all comes crashing down and you're hopelessly left behind. Then you are Russia."[27]

Romney was also a supporter of CAFTA, saying, "It does make me chuckle, when you see Congress struggling about whether we should open our trade with Central America. When Asia is looming off the horizon, we're worried about El Salvador and Guatemala?"[28]

 

Entitlement Reform

America's major middle-class entitlement programs are already insolvent. The Club for Growth supports entitlement reforms that enable personal ownership of retirement and healthcare programs, benefit from market returns, and diminish dependency on government.

As governor, Romney pushed for important changes to Massachusetts expansive welfare system. Although federal welfare reform passed in 1995, Massachusetts was woefully behind, relying on a waiver to bypass many of the legislation's important requirements. Romney fought for legislation that would bring Massachusetts' welfare system up to date with federal standards by increasing the number of hours each week recipients must work and establishing a five-year limit for receiving benefits.[29] Much to his credit and to the dismay of many Massachusetts liberals, Romney successfully forced Medicaid recipients to make co-payments for some services[30] and successfully pushed for legislative action forcing new state workers to contribute 25% of their health insurance costs, up from 15%.[31] Governor Romney also deserves praise for proposing to revolutionize the Massachusetts state pension system by moving it from a defined benefit system to a defined contribution system.[32]

Regarding Social Security, Romney's record is scarce. Romney has ruled out the option of raising Social Security taxes, embraced the idea of reducing the growth rate of future benefits, and supports personal accounts, but unfortunately, has not embraced a comprehensive reform plan as of yet.[33]

But one cannot talk about Romney's record on entitlement reform without considering the universal healthcare plan Governor Romney helped craft in Massachusetts. The bill that Governor Romney signed with a grinning Ted Kennedy in the background on April 12, 2006,[34] has been the victim of much scorn from many economic conservatives. Some of those criticisms are valid. However, Romney also deserves credit for trying to move a terrible system towards free-market improvements.

It is important to state that many of the problems that plague our healthcare system are rooted in federal law, leaving governors with their hands tied. The federal tax code severely impedes individual ownership of health insurance, and federal legislation requires hospitals to treat all patients regardless of their ability to pay, effectively creating a universal healthcare mandate and forcing taxpayers to foot the bill for people who can afford, but refuse to buy, insurance.

Governor Romney didn't have the option of reforming federal law, and was forced to contend with a liberal Legislature that rejected many of his positive reforms. He was also facing a Bush administration threat to cut off $385 million per year in federal Medicaid funds unless the state reduced the number of uninsured people.[35] Given these limitations, Governor Romney deserves credit for proposing (and to a lesser extent, enacting) a plan that encourages individually-owned health insurance and circumvents some of the inequities carved into the federal tax code.

In order to bypass this inequity, Romney created a device known as the "Connector" that serves as a government-sponsored clearinghouse/regulator for private healthcare plans. Ideally, the role of the "Connector" would be played by the private sector and would not include a regulatory function. Nevertheless, the Massachusetts "Connector" does dramatically facilitate individually-owned health insurance plans by enabling individuals to purchase health insurance with pre-tax dollars and choose from a number of competing private plans.[36]

Governor Romney also deserves credit for redirecting money earmarked for hospitals, as part of the uncompensated care program, to individuals directly in the form of a subsidized premium assistance program. While subsidies for individual purchases are overly generous (people earning up to 300% of the federal poverty level qualify), in contrast to subsidizing hospitals, they encourage individual ownership of private health insurance, broaden the private health insurance pool, distribute risk over a wider spectrum, and may lower overall costs.[37]

To be sure, the Massachusetts plan's individual mandate to purchase healthcare insurance rankles libertarian instincts and necessitates a government-defined standard for compliance-and Romney should be taken to task for this. A system of incentives for purchasing insurance together with penalties for consuming healthcare services without coverage would no doubt be a major improvement over the Massachusetts government-imposed mandate. Romney's original proposal offered individuals the option of forgoing insurance and posting a bond in an interest-bearing account, but the Legislature made sure that option never saw the light of day.[38]

Governor Romney tried to deregulate the overregulated healthcare insurance coverage. Many of his efforts were rebuffed by the Legislature, but he did make some progress. Thanks to Governor Romney, HMOs can now offer high deductible plans tied to health savings accounts; Massachusetts set a three-year moratorium on new benefit mandates; and individuals aged 19-26 have the option of enrolling in low-cost plans with dollar-limited annual benefits.[39]

One of the most objectionable elements of the plan in principle-the employer mandate that requires businesses with 11 or more full-time employees to provide health insurance-was inserted by the Legislature and is easily circumvented.[40] Governor Romney vetoed this provision, but the veto was quickly overridden.[ 41]

To be sure, Commonwealth Care is a far cry from free-market healthcare. Besides the individual and employer mandates, the program expands Medicaid,[42] does not deregulate enough, and will likely cost more than the current system[ 43], which despite all its flaws, does, after all, already provide universal healthcare on demand. Most of the blame for the deficiencies in the Massachusetts plan lies with the liberal Legislature which, absent the resistance of Governor Romney, almost certainly would have enacted a major tax increase while moving healthcare reform in the worst possible direction. Nevertheless, given its massively regulatory nature and likely high cost, the Massachusetts healthcare plan is not a model upon which a national plan should be built.

 

Regulation

Excessive government regulation stymies individual and business innovation necessary for strong economic expansion. The Club for Growth supports less and more sensible government regulation as a critical step toward increasing freedom and growth in the marketplace.

Mitt Romney's record on regulation is generally impressive. On the campaign trail, he has supported drilling in ANWR[44 ] and opposed the burdensome regulations imposed by Sarbanes-Oxley[45]. As governor, he often clashed with the knee-jerk anti-business Legislature over his attempts to ease Massachusetts' regulatory burdens. Though some of his largest undertakings were ultimately crushed by liberal opposition, Governor Romney deserves praise for attempting to change the relationship between government and private enterprise for the better. These efforts include:

  • Vetoed an increase in the minimum wage from $6.75 to $8.00, proposing a 25-cent increase as a compromise, and arguing that "there's no question raising the minimum wage excessively causes a loss of jobs"[46]
  • Pushed to revamp the Pacheco Law, a union-backed measure that makes it nearly impossible to privatize or outsource state services[47]
  • Aggressively pushed to deregulate Massachusetts' "Soviet-style" auto insurance industry. Massachusetts is the only state in which the government mandates maximum insurance rates and requires insurers to accept every applicant[48]
  • Called for the privatization of the University of Massachusetts medical school [ 49]
  • Proposed measures to eliminate civil service protection for all municipal workers except police and firefighters and exempt low-cost public construction jobs from the state's wage law [50]
  • Proposed easing decades-old state regulations on wetlands [51]
  • Proposed easing pricing regulations on Massachusetts retailers [ 52]
  • Signed a bill streamlining the state's cumbersome permitting process for new businesses [53]
  • Eased regulations for brownfield development [54]
  • Vetoed a bill limiting the ability of out-of-state wineries to ship directly to Massachusetts consumers, calling the legislation "anti-consumer" [55]

Governor Romney's regulatory record contains some flaws. Despite vetoing the Legislature's minimum wage increase, the Governor is on record supporting indexing the minimum wage to inflation.[56] Romney also signed into law a measure banning smoking in the workplace including bars and restaurants (with exemptions for some private clubs)[57]; and implemented "comprehensive ocean zoning reform" that imposed new regulations on ocean front development. [58]

On balance, Romney's anti-regulation efforts reflect an intuitive appreciation for the free market and its important role in promoting economic growth. While many of his proposals were rejected by the State Legislature, he demonstrated strong support for private enterprise in a state where regulation is a way of life.

 

School Choice

The Club for Growth supports broad school choice, including charter schools, voucher programs, and tax credits that create a competitive education market including public, private, religious, and non-religious schools. More competition in education can only lead to higher quality and lower costs.

Mitt Romney is on record supporting charter schools, school vouchers, and home schooling. As governor, Romney focused on charter school expansion rather than implementing a voucher program. He pushed to eliminate the state-mandated cap on the number of charter schools[59] and successfully vetoed a moratorium on the opening of new charter schools, passed by the Massachusetts Legislature in 2004. [60] Although comprehensive school choice clearly is the solution to much of what plagues primary and secondary education, it is understandable that Governor Romney chose to spend his political capital on more attainable charter school expansion given the political opposition to empowering poor children in Massachusetts.

During his 1994 Senate race, he advocated abolishing the Department of Education[61], but has since moved away from that admirable position, saying in the FOX News Republican presidential debate that he supports No Child Left Behind and has seen as a governor that "the Department of Education can actually make a difference."[62]

 

Political Free Speech

Maximizing prosperity requires sound government policies. When the government strays from these policies, citizens must be free to exercise their constitutional rights to petition and criticize those policies and the politicians responsible for them.

Mitt Romney's position on political free speech has undergone a radical evolution. During his 1994 Senate race against Ted Kennedy, Romney took an outrageous position on campaign finance reform that put him to the left of the current McCain-Feingold legislation, arguing for campaign spending limits-unconstitutional even under Buckley v. Valeo-and the abolition of PACs:

"I personally believe that when campaigns spend the kind of money they're now spending...and to get that kind of money you've gotta cozy up as an incumbent to all of the special-interest groups who can go out and raise money for you from their members, and that kind of relationship has an influence over the way you're going to vote...And for that reason I would like to have campaign spending limits and to say we're not going to spend more than this in certain campaigns...I also would abolish PACS. You probably have one. I don't like them. I don't like the influence of money-whether it's business, labor, or any other group. I do not like that kind of influence..."[63]

In his 2002 gubernatorial campaign, Romney proposed a radical new campaign finance system, in which privately-funded campaigns would be taxed 10% in order to fund publicly-funded campaigns as part of Massachusetts' Clean Election Law in order to "spare taxpayers the burden of shouldering the entire expense of this program."[64] In 2003, he allowed a repeal of the Clean Elections Law to stand. [65]

As a presidential candidate, Mitt Romney has pivoted drastically, abandoning his old anti-First Amendment stance and taking the harshest position on McCain-Feingold of all the candidates. He has called repeatedly for the legislation's repeal,[66] and even labeled the bill "one of the worst things in my lifetime." [67] Now Romney is advocating "reforms that promote transparency and disclosure, preserve grassroots activism and protect the ability to criticize or endorse current officeholders and candidates."[68] While we welcome this change of heart, we hope it is inspired by greater appreciation for the First Amendment rather than by the political dynamics of the presidential primary.

 

Tort Reform

The American economy suffers from excessive litigation which increases the cost of doing business and slows economic growth. The Club for Growth supports major reforms to our tort system to restore a more just and less costly balance in tort litigation.

From his 1994 Senate race,[69] to his gubernatorial campaign in 2002, and throughout his four years as governor, Romney was a strong proponent of tort reform. As governor, he supported capping personal injury claims in automobile-related cases[70] and advocated for overhauling Massachusetts' exorbitant medical malpractice system. Massachusetts is notorious for having some of the highest malpractice insurance rates in the country, driving doctors in key specialties out of the state.[71]

During his gubernatorial campaign, Mitt Romney supported capping punitive damages to replace the unlimited status quo.[72] In 2003, Romney also supported a bill to cap noneconomic awards at $500,000, arguing at a rally organized by the Massachusetts Medical Society, "If we have in place policies which drive physicians away, which drive costs spiraling out of control, we can't attract jobs, we can't have a better future for our kids and the families that want to live here. We need reform now."[73] In May of 2006, the Romney administration issued a specific tort reform proposal, calling for:

  • Closing loopholes in the $500,000 cap on non-economic damages which allowed lawyers to win excessive damages
  • Reducing lawsuits by allowing doctors to disclose medical errors without fear of admissibility in court
  • Increasing the number of claims resolved prior to trial
  • Tightening the state's tribunal system to ensure that only meritorious malpractice lawsuits go to trial
  • Reduces lawyers' fees from 25% for verdicts over $500,000 to 15% for verdicts over $600,000
  • Reducing pre-judgment interest to the one-year Treasury rate[74]

On the campaign trail, Romney has taken his impressive record to the national level, insisting on badly needed nationwide tort reform.[75]

 

Summation

As Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney's record on economic issues was generally good. He demonstrated a willingness to take on his Legislature and deserves credit for the many pro-growth measures he advocated and the modest reforms he was able to achieve. While his record on taxes, spending and entitlement reform is flawed, it is, on balance, encouraging, especially given the liberal Massachusetts Legislature. His record on trade, school choice, regulations, and tort reform all indicate a strong respect for the power of market solutions.

At the same time, Governor Romney's history is marked by statements at odds with his gubernatorial record and his campaign rhetoric. His strident opposition to the flat tax; his refusal to endorse the Bush tax cuts in 2003; his support for various minor tax hikes; and his once-radically bad views on campaign finance reform all cast some doubts on the extent and durability of his commitment to limited-government, pro-growth policies. His landmark steps in the health care arena also exhibit a mixture of desirable pro-free market efforts combined with a regrettable willingness to accept, if not embrace, a massive new regulatory regime. Nevertheless, given his outstanding private sector entrepreneurial experience; the strong pro-growth positions he has taken on the campaign trail; his overall record as governor; and the fact that the U.S. Congress will not be as liberal as the Massachusetts Legislature, we are reasonably optimistic that, as President, Mitt Romney would generally advocate a pro-growth agenda.

 

Footnotes

[1]Massachusetts Executive Office of Administration and Finance, internal documents
[2]Boston Herald, 01/30/03
[3]Knight Ridder Tribune Business News, 01/29/04
[4]Knight Ridder Tribune Business News, 02/27/03
[5]Knight Ridder Tribune Business News, 01/29/04
[6]Boston Globe, 03/26/05
[7]Boston Globe, 05/20/04
[8]The Providence Journal, 05/18/05
[9]Boston Globe, 07/01/06
[10]Knight Ridder Tribune Business News, 12/02/05 & Associated Press, 12,05/05
[11]Press Release, Mitt Romney, 11/20/05
[12]Press Release, Mitt Romney, 07/22/05
[13]Boston Herald, 10/27/02
[14]Boston Globe, 04/11/03
[15]Boston Herald, 02/08/07
[16]Hotline On Call, 04/28/07
[17]Des Moines Register, 04/05/07
[18]Bureau of Labor Statistics & U.S. Census Bureau
[19]Boston Globe, 01/30/03
[20]Telegram & Gazette, 02/27/03
[21]Telegram & Gazette, 01/14/06
[22]Executive Office of Administration and Finance
[23]Telegram & Gazette, 08/03/03
[24]Telegram & Gazette, 08/03/03
[25]Associated Press, 01/28/03
[26]Boston Globe, 11/23/06
[27]CRN.com, 11/16/05, Source
[28]Associated Press, 11/16/05
[29]Boston Globe, 07/09/05
[30]The Patriot Ledger, 07/05/03
[31]Boston Globe, 06/20/03
[32]Boston Globe, 03/09/03
[33]Mitt Romney, Club for Growth Winter Conference, 03/29/07 & St. Petersburg Times, 08/07/07
[34]The Daily Free Press, 04/13/06, Source
[35]International Herald Tribune, 04/06/06
[36]Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder, No. 1953, 07/18/06
[37]Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder, No. 1953, 07/18/06
[38]Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder, No. 1953, 07/18/06 & Boston Globe, 11/13/05
[39]Heritage Foundation, WebMemo, No. 1414, 04/04/07
[40]Heritage Foundation, WebMemo No. 1045, 04/20/06
[41]Business Insurance, 05/08/06, Vol. 40, Iss. 19
[42]Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder, No. 1953, 07/18/06 & Boston Globe, 11/10/05
[43]Health Affairs, "The Third Wave of Massachusetts Health Care Access Reform," 09/14/06 & Cato Policy Analysis No. 595, 06/28/07
[44]Boston Globe, 12/13/05
[45]Mitt Romney, Club for Growth Winter Conference, 03/29/07
[46]Telegram & Gazette, 08/01/06
[47]Boston Globe, 02/26/03
[48]The Sun, 06/02/05
[49]Telegram & Gazette, 02/27/03
[50]Boston Herald, 01/31/03
[51]Telegram & Gazette, 09/05/04
[52]Knight Ridder Tribune Business News, 02/27/03
[53]The Berkshire Eagle, 08/04/06
[54]Boston Globe, 09/12/03
[55]Press Release, Mitt Romney, 11/21/05 & Telegram & Gazette, 11/22/05
[56]The Patriot Ledger, 11/02/02
[57]Press Release, Mitt Romney, 06/18/04 & The Patriot Ledger, 06/11/04
[58]US Fed News Service, 03/18/05
[59]Telegram & Gazette, 01/24/04
[60]Boston Globe, 06/26/04 & Boston Globe, 07/21/04
[61]Boston Globe, 10/12/94
[62]Fox News Channel, Republican presidential debate, 05/15/07
[63]C-SPAN2, 10/17/94, Source
[64]The Patriot Ledger, 10/15/02 & Telegram & Gazette, 06/30/03
[65]Telegram & Gazette, 06/30/03
[66]Press Release, Romney for President, 03/02/07
[67]The Hill, 02/08/07
[68]Press Release, Romney for President, 03/02/07
[69]Boston Globe, 07/01/94
[70]The Sun, 06/02/05
[71]Boston Globe, 11/13/03
[72]Boston Globe, 10/02/02
[73]Boston Globe, 04/09/03
[74]Press Release, Mitt Romney, 05/23/06
[75]Mitt Romney, Detroit Economic Club, 02/07/07

Video

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Inquisitive NH Voter Reacts To Giuliani Remark

Read Jon Keller's Political Blog

Slideshow: 2008 Presidential Hopefuls

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Jon Keller
Reporting

(WBZ) BOSTON Giving the little people a chance to face off with "big people" is what makes the New Hampshire primary famous.

Rudy Giuliani is the latest candidate to get caught off guard by a cut-to-the-chase question from a voter.

I spoke with the Derry, New Hampshire woman who brought him up short, and she's feeling the heat for her question.

Katherine Prudhomme-O'Brien says she was just curious about the apparent lack of support for their father's candidacy by Giuliani's son and daughter from a previous marriage, but that query and Giuliani's dismissive reply have been the buzz of the political world all weekend.

"I asked him how he'd expect the American people to give him loyal fellowship if he was having a hard time getting it from his own family."

Giuliani's response: "There are complexities in every family in America. The best thing I can say is kind of leave my family alone, just like I'll leave your family alone."

Keller: What did you think of his answer?

Katherine: I thought it was a little defensive. I guess he's still not ready to talk about the whole thing because it's very uncomfortable for him.

And apparently for others, as well. Katherine's question has been criticized by some pundits as inappropriate.

Katherine: When George Stephanopolous said I was a professional heckler, that was crazy, because I don't recall every heckling anybody.

She did once ask then-candidate Al Gore to comment on Bill Clinton's personal misbehavior, a fact that's been used to discredit her.

Keller: You're not a kook or a wacko?

Katherine: I don't think I'm a kook or a wacko.

Keller: You're not a plant by some other campaign?

Katherine: No, this is a plant (pointing to a nearby plant), I'm not a plant.

In fact, Katherine wonders why she had to be the one to raise long-simmering questions about Giuliani's personal character. "I'm very frustrated by the media. I think maybe they want to maintain access, so maybe they're selling their soul for access and not doing their job."

How true. Concerns about Giuliani's temperament are one of the key barriers he faces in his run for president, and stories about his estranged son and Obama-supporting daughter have been out in public for awhile.

It's outrageous Katherine has been taking heat for politely asking about it. And it's testimony to the value in forcing candidates out of their media bubble once in awhile to take blunt questions from fearless voters, New Hampshire style.

Katherine Prudhomme-O'Brien

Katherine Prudhomme-O'Brien says she was just curious about the apparent lack of support for their father's candidacy by Giuliani's son and daughter from a previous marriage.

CBS

 

 

'IF YOU CAN'T RUN YOUR OWN HOUSE, YOU CAN'T RUN THE WHITE HOUSE'...

'IF YOU CAN'T RUN YOUR OWN HOUSE, YOU CAN'T RUN THE WHITE HOUSE'...
Michelle Obama: 'One of the most important things that we need to know about the next President of the United States is, is he somebody that shares our values? Is he somebody that respects family? Is a good and decent person? So our view was that, if you can't run your own house, you certainly can't run the White House. So, so we've adjusted our schedules to make sure that our girls are first'...


OBAMA WIFE SLAMS HILLARY?

"Exceptional" Radio Ad

Paul Schmitt from the daily Alini: "Mitt Romney: The best solution to America's ills"

Mitt Romney: The best solution to America's ills

By Paul Schmitt

Posted: 8/21/07 Section: Opinion Columns

When your daughter is lost in Manhattan, overdosed on ecstasy, where do you turn? While the NYPD and other run-of-the-mill solutions are probably a safe first choice, I suggest another option - Mitt Romney. Sure, Mitt Romney doesn't wield an M9 or wear a sleek uniform, as far as I know, but he has proven himself again and again at handling crisis situations. Perhaps by the end of this column, you'll be nominating him to handle our country's current crisis situation.

According to NewsMax Magazine, a bastion of respected journalism, Romney handled such a crisis in 1996 when the 14-year-old daughter of his business partner went missing in New York City. Romney sprang into action assembling a crack team of more than 20 of his employees and friends from Bain Capital, his multibillion dollar venture firm, to find the girl. While the girl was perhaps saved only hours from death thanks to Romney's quick thinking and vast resources, what's more impressive is that this story is a concentrated example of the types of wonders that Romney has been working throughout his life.

Many in Illinois, infected by Obama Fever (symptoms include: hyper behavior, uncontrolled enthusiasm and an inability to name any of the candidate's accomplishments), may wish that the Republicans would play dead this election cycle. However, upon reviewing the credentials of those in the race on both sides, the Mormon from Massachusetts (of all places) deserves a second look. Though Mitt Romney faces a long road with Giuliani and Thompson as adversaries, his ability to surprise and achieve may carry him further than most expect.

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, has proven himself as a leader, in and out of government. In 2002, Romney was called on to save the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics, which had been scandal-ridden and destined for financial chaos. The Olympic Committee had accepted more than $1 million in bribes before Romney was called in to clean things up. When he was done, the projected deficit of $379 million was transformed into a profit of $56 million. While Romney's miracle could be attributed to his savvy business skills, he has brought similar success to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

While the Republican governor of a state claiming only 13 percent of her population as registered Republicans, Romney balanced the state's budget and eradicated a deficit of $3 billion. NewsMax reports that Romney even left the governor's office with a "rainy day fund." Additionally, Romney labored over landmark legislation that created a statewide health care program that covers 99.5 percent of Massachusetts' residents. Not only has Romney accomplished some very un-Republican objectives in a partisan state, he accomplished it all without ever raising taxes or driving businesses from the state - perhaps our grandiose-goaled governor could take a tip from Romney's style.

Though many have questioned Romney's record as a social conservative, after all, he did once support a woman's right to choose regarding abortion, it may be important to remember that even Ronald Reagan was once pro-choice. Romney's conversion to the pro-life cause is likely legitimate; he claims the importance of the sanctity of life on abortion dawned on him during a debate in Massachusetts over cloning. Perhaps it takes some extreme madness to show us how far we've drifted from our roots.

Giuliani and Thompson would probably both serve effectively in the Oval Office. However, Romney's accomplishments in an executive role make him tailored for the challenges faced by a president. Working in the severe minority with a legislature in Massachusetts also gives Romney the skills to unite a country long polarized by political ideology.

He may not be the media darling that Obama is, or the dynasty candidate that Hillary Clinton is, but Romney leads with a type of modest confidence that has been lacking from the White House for many years.

Romney's efforts in the campaign could be fruitful for America. Even if he isn't the perfect choice for conservatives or isn't progressive enough for moderates, for Republicans, Romney brings with him the cure to Obama fever - practical experience.

Aug 20, 2007

Hedgehog Report: Romney Surges In Gallup Poll

Romney Surges In Gallup Poll

Who says the Iowa straw poll didn't matter? A new poll from the people at Gallup shows Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee gaining while the other top three candidates dropped (difference from Aug 3-5 in parentheses).

PRESIDENT - NATIONAL - GOP PRIMARY
Rudy Giuliani 32% (-1)
Fred Thompson 19% (-2)
Mitt Romney 14% (+6)
John McCain 11% (-6)
Mike Huckabee 4% (+2)
Ron Paul 3% (+1)
Duncan Hunter 2% (+1)
Chuck Hagel 1% (NC)
Sam Brownback 1% (NC)
Tom Tancredo 1% (NC)

This latest poll was done August 13-16 among a bunch of registered voters. Even better news for Romney, his favorable ratings have improved among the General public, and more importantly in the short term, among Republican voters. He went from net -9% favorable rating to +7% favorable rating among the public at large. Among Republican voters, his favorable rating is at 49% in this poll, up 13% form the previous Gallup poll. But before the Romney crowd starts wonder, he still trails Giuliani, McCain and Thompson in favorability ratings.

Favorable-Unfavorable Opinion (among GOP voters)
Giuliani 77%-14%
John McCain 59%-28%
Fred Thompson 50%-7%
Mitt Romney 49%-16%
Mike Huckabee 30%-8%
Sam Brownback 14%-13%

Regardless, it is clear Romney continues to make gains from his victory in Iowa. While he didn't have to contend with the other top candidates, it has clearly given him a boost.

Posted by Dave Wissing at 1:04 pm
Filed under: Election 2008 - Polls |

Comments:

  1. I think its about time that the candidates not getting 5% of the vote should drop out entirely.

    Also, Obama was a very big winner in the most recent debate.

    Comment by Tina — 8/19/2007 @ 1:17 pm

  2. In my opinion, it was not the Straw Poll, at all. What is making the difference for Gov. Romney is that he has infused his campaign with a lot of cash, and has spent it in Iowa and New Hampshire.
    And, he has put a good organization on the ground. Very important. Ground organization translates into votes.

    Comment by Tim — 8/19/2007 @ 1:51 pm

  3. Agree with BL on F. Thompson. I also think that his appearance at the Iowa Fair (shown on Fox with Carl Cameron) was a disaster. Wearing Gucci loafers, and being shuttled around in a golf cart? Get real.

    Comment by Tina — 8/19/2007 @ 3:40 pm

Aug 19, 2007

Mitt Romney's Mormon Religion Hurting Him?

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Mitt Romney's Mormon Religion Hurting Him?

A funny thing happened to Mitt Romney, one of the most conservative candidates in the GOP field, on the way to the Republican nomination for President. What? The fact that he is a Mormon is hurting Mitt Romney with some hardcore conservative evangelical Christian voters and even after months of trying to change there minds, Mitt Romney is still having a tough time moving his poll numbers up to the area of Rudy Giuliani and the yet to announce Fred Thompson.

What Mitt Romney is going though with a certain segment of the GOP is something other mainstream Christian Republicans have learned the hard way too and that is many social evangelical Christian voters are just as stubborn in their extreme conservative political views as the liberal kooks with crazy ideas in Hollywood are in the democratic party. However, with Mitt Romney there is another added problem and that is his Mormon religion has been criticized in some churches for years as being more akin to a cult than a real religion.

If Mitt Romney was not a Mormon, I believe he would be leading Rudy Giuliani is the race for the GOP nomination. However, Mitt Romney is a Mormon and in a small way he might be a winner even if he does not win the GOP nomination next year. How? He is paving the way for future Mormon candidates for high political office in the future. John Kennedy made it possible for Catholics to seek the presidency and win, just like Jesse Jackson is helping Barack Obama this year because he first tired and failed to win the job of President of the United States in the past.

I have met many Mormons in my life and I have yet to meet a person that has been raised a Mormon that was not kind to me and also every single person I have met that follows strict Mormon teachings have very high levels of personal moral values and integrity.

Read more about Religion:

Church State Issues
Religion Gone Wrong
War About Religion
Following Blind Faith
So Much Extremism

People bored at a Barack Obama event...


IMG_1862, originally uploaded by Barack Obama.

He actually put this on his flickr account. Click the picture to see more people being bored!

"Fred Thompson Does Not Support A Constitutional Amendment To Ban Gay Marriage."

Posted by: Hugh Hewitt  at 8:56 AM That's from the Thompson Campaign, as reported by K-Lo at The Corner.

Which makes Romney the only top tier candidate who does support the Federal Marriage Amendment.  (Romney's very public campaign on behalf of the Amendment is detailed in A Mormon In The White House.)

Thompson leaves the door open to supporting the amendment in the future, but proponents of the amendment have long pointed to the threat of sudden, judge-imposed changes in the law that would see DOMA struck down without warning.

This is a huge issue in the GOP primaries with a crucial segment of the electorate --the segment that hates court-imposed social engineering.  Fred Thompson's lassitude on this issue will undercut the enthusiasm some in the evangelical community have expressed for his possible candidacy. 

If the defense of traditional marriage is one of your key issues, Fred Thompson can't be your candidate.

Aug 18, 2007

Fred Thompson Acts Lazy and Wears Gucci Loafers at Iowa Fair (Sez Fox Video)

[thompsonfredgucciloaferscountryfair.jpg]
Lazy Gucci-Wearing Fred Thompson Goes To The Iowa Fair

With friends like Fox News, Fred Thompson doesn't need Democrats. Fox reports that Fred Thompson played like he's a real candidate by motoring around the Iowa State Fair in a golf cart and taking lots of breaks in the VIP tent, all the while wearing his Gucci loafers at the country fair. Says Fox News in another video (48 sec) clip: "He's been motoring around in a golf cart, something that no other presidential candidate has done throughout the entire two weeks of the state fair." (Video clip below is 4 minutes.)

What was it that Jim Cooper said about Fred Thompson back in the 1990s? Oh, yeah, Fred Thompson is a "Gucci-wearing, Lincoln-driving, Perrier-drinking, Grey Poupon–spreading millionaire Washington special-interest lobbyist."

Fred Thompson Tries To Get It Right - Again

Fred Thompson Tries To Get It Right - Again

by bigjolly | 08/08/2007 11:38 am | Alert moderator

Good ol' boy, regular American guy Fred just can't seem to figure out who he wants to run his non-campaign campaign. Maybe the third time's a charm .

Fred Thompson on Wednesday tapped the man he credits with saving his 1994 Senate campaign to take over his likely presidential bid.

Bill Lacy, a former strategist for Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole and Republican National Committee, will run day-to-day operations of Thompson's committee to "test the waters" for a presidential run.

"He turned around my campaign for Senate in 1994

Someone better turn this ship around. Lately it's been more like one of those subs in the Hunt for Red October, sinking fast.

The all-but-declared candidate collected about $1.5 million less than the $5 million backers had hoped to bring in during June, his first fundraising month. In July, Thompson sidelined his campaign-manager-in-waiting, Tom Collamore, and watched a few other aides follow him out the door amid consternation inside the operation about the active role of Thompson's wife, Jeri.

Perhaps Mr. Lacy will fare a bit better than he did in his last stint as a presidential campaign manager.

A White House political director in the Reagan administration, Lacy was Dole's political strategist for 10 years, including during the Kansas senator's failed 1996 presidential run. Lacy resigned shortly after Dole lost the New Hampshire and Delaware primaries.

I'll say this for Mr. Lacy, he sure nailed the reason for ol' Fred's turnaround in his Senate race.

"Fred isn't Superman. His style has some similarities to President Reagan, but he hasn't been around as long and proven himself as much," Lacy wrote. "But he has been tested: In the darkest hours of his political career, when the wheels were about to come off his first campaign, he figured out how to scoop them up, put them on a red truck and drive off into the sunset."

You could write a book from that statement. Certainly, his style is similar to Reagan's, give him that much. But even though his Senate career wasn't exactly stellar, you have to give him credit where credit is due. He did manage to get McCain/Feingold passed, even got a loving note from Russ for his efforts.

But I like that last one best, about scooping up the wheels, renting a little red truck and driving into the sunset. What little red truck ?

Although some of his campaign staff protested the move as cheesy, they leased Thompson a red Chevy pickup and he hit the road. Cooper attempted to paint Thompson as phony, calling him a "Gucci-wearing, Lincoln-driving, Perrier-drinking, Grey Poupon–spreading millionaire Washington special-interest lobbyist." But voters loved the truck. They didn't seem to mind that the candidate often switched from a sedan to the truck just miles from his appearances. "We couldn't believe anyone was buying it ," says Kopp.

There are a lot of good, hard working conservatives running for the Republican nomination in 2008. Hunter, Romney, Tommy Thompson, Giuliani and others. Why settle for style over substance?

New Gallup Poll

August 17, 2007

New Gallup Poll: Romney Posts Modest Gains

Majority of Republicans unaware of his Iowa victory, however


by Frank Newport

 

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has posted modest gains over the last two weeks, both in his favorable rating and in his positioning in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. One presumption is that Romney's gains reflect the visibility that followed his win in the Iowa Republican Party straw poll last weekend, although data in the new Gallup Poll show that only a third of Republicans nationwide are directly aware that Romney won this unofficial contest.

Republican Horse Race

Romney now receives 14% of Republicans' votes when they are asked whom they would like as their party's presidential nominee, up from 8% in each of the two previous Gallup Polls conducted in July and early August. Romney's current positioning puts him slightly behind front-runner Rudy Giuliani and unannounced candidate Fred Thompson, but slightly ahead of John McCain, who slips to 11% in this poll.

Which of these candidates would you be most likely
to support for the Republican nomination?
among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents


 

2007 Jun 11-14

2007 Jul 6-8

2007 Jul 12-15

2007 Aug 3-5

2007 Aug 13-16


 

 

 

 

 

Giuliani

29

32

33

33

32

F. Thompson

21

21

21

21

19

Romney

8

9

8

8

14

McCain

20

16

16

16

11

Huckabee

3

2

2

2

4

Paul

2

*

3

2

3

Hunter

2

3

1

1

2

Hagel

1

1

*

1

1

Brownback

2

1

2

1

1

Tancredo

1

2

*

1

1

T. Thompson

2

2

1

2

n/a

Gilmore

1

*

*

n/a

n/a

Pataki

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Other

*

*

1

2

1

None/No opinion

8

10

11

10

11

 * Less than 0.5%

Romney's positioning is not a new high point for the former Massachusetts governor; he was at 14% in a Gallup Poll in early June. At that time, however, McCain had a clear claim on second place, while Romney was roughly tied with Thompson for third. The accompanying graph shows the relative positioning of the four leading candidates since February.

These data are based on the Republican ballot and do not include preferences for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. When the ballot is further re-calculated to reflect only the currently declared candidates (thus excluding not only Gingrich but also Thompson and Chuck Hagel), Giuliani is supported by 39% of Republicans, Romney by 17%, McCain by 15%, and Mike Huckabee -- who finished second in the Iowa straw poll -- by 7%. Giuliani and McCain did not participate in the straw poll.

Favorable Rating

Romney's favorable rating has jumped from 22% to 33% over the past two weeks, while his unfavorable rating has fallen from 31% to 24%.

Romney's favorable rating had been in the 22% to 23% range over the previous three polls conducted in July and August, with a higher unfavorable than favorable rating in each of these polls. Although his favorable rating had been as high as 27% in May, the current 33% is his highest to date.

Forty-nine percent of Republicans now have a favorable opinion of Romney, compared with 36% in the prior poll. At the same time, Romney's unfavorable rating among Republicans dropped from 20% to 16%. All in all, Romney's name identification among Republicans -- the percentage who have an opinion of him -- jumped by nine points over the last two weeks.

Still, despite these gains for Romney, his favorable rating among Republicans remains below Giuliani's and McCain's, and although he shares similar favorable ratings with Thompson, his unfavorable rating is more than twice as high. Romney is, however, better known than Thompson (despite the latter's film and TV exposure), and much better known than Huckabee or Sam Brownback.

Opinion Ratings Among Republicans of
Six Republican Current or Potential Presidential Candidates

Aug. 13-16, 2007


Favorable

Unfavorable

Don't know/
No opinion


%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

77

14

9

John McCain

59

28

13

Fred Thompson

50

7

43

Mitt Romney

49

16

35

Mike Huckabee

30

8

62

Sam Brownback

14

13

73

Awareness of the Iowa Straw Poll Victory

Romney won the Iowa straw poll a week ago with 32% of the vote of Republicans who cast their straw-poll ballots, followed by Huckabee with 18%. One could assume that Romney's image and vote gains in the Aug. 13-16 Gallup Poll reflect in part the positive visibility he received as a result of that victory. That may be the case, but a separate question asked at the end of the poll shows that only a third of Republicans could name Romney as the winner in Iowa.

The change in Romney's positioning in the current poll could in theory have occurred only among Republicans who were aware of his victory in Iowa, but there is no way to know that for sure because there is no way to trend this group to the pre-straw poll survey.  

The sample size of Republicans who were aware that Romney had won the Iowa straw poll is quite small (n=178), but it is of interest to look at the vote preferences among this group. The data show that Thompson has a slight lead over Romney among this group, with Giuliani slightly further behind. This finding may reflect the pre-existing characteristics of the group most likely to follow GOP politics closely, or it may be a result of the characteristics of those who were paying attention to the Iowa straw poll specifically. But it is true that Romney (and Thompson) does better among Republicans who were aware of Romney's victory in Iowa than among those who were not.

Summary

All in all, the general finding is that Romney has enjoyed a modest improvement in his standing among Republicans, and that this improvement coincides with the time of his victory in the Iowa straw poll.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,019 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 13-16, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

From Michael Tam's Blog

Michael Tams is a great guy and has a great blog. Go check it out!

Friday, August 17, 2007

The Illinois Straw Poll and the Paulaholics

So I went to the State Fair on Thursday - took a valuable personal day to make my first trip to Springfield. The Fair itself was an experience, and something I will do again. To my great shame, again I acknowledge this was my first trip to Springfield, and I'll be sure to soon visit again and check out some fun things I'd like to do there. Like this, for example. Who's with me??

At the straw poll, I had a couple of encounters with the young people I've taken to calling the Paulaholics. Ron's kids, in other words. His literature claims that he's had 4,000 babies (or maybe he just delivered them?). Anyway, although Mom always said if you don't have anything nice to say...

I've never seen a more unwashed and angry group of people in my life. Honest to God, I had to keep reminding myself that these weren't liberals. It appears that Paul draws heavy support from the "legalize marijuana" wing of the Libertarian Party; some of the older folks at the fair remarked that it felt "like the 60s" all over again. I saw more long hair, beards, Birkenstocks, tattoos and piercings than I have seen in a long time. And they regularly were shouting to drown out other speakers. At one point - I am not making this up - organizers at the fair had to ask Paul's supporters to move away from the stage where IL GOP officials were making speeches: they were holding up signs to get on camera and they were the only ones so etiquette-inept to fail to realize that this was in poor taste. I attended my last heavy-metal concert with my younger brother in 2000, and the Paulaholics could have learned some manners from your average concert-goer. It was that bad.

And then it got worse. I talked a little bit to one Paulaholic and posed an interesting question to him. Suppose Romney got the nomination, I inquired, would you support him? No, came the answer. Why not, I asked. Because that's a vote that would send me to hell, came the reply. This person then informed me of the fact that Mormonism is a false religion, and when I mentioned that I wasn't Mormon but Catholic, tried to engage me in a debate about "faith" vs. "faith and works." As politely as I could, I told him that we could sit there all day and quote Scripture to each other, but it wasn't going to make a difference in anything other than what time we went to bed.

It's easy to get swept up in something you're passionate about, I get that. But the general rabidity that came from the Paul campaign was unlike anything I witnessed from the Guiliani, Thompson or Romney people.

Oh, and one of the Paulaholics - he wasn't a day over 18 - told me that Paul is for the Constitution. By sheer force of will alone I resisted the urge to ask if he had plans for it other than to roll it up and smoke it.


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