Harnessing Collective Intelligence: A Proposal for Transparent, Data-Driven Decision Making

Peter Thiel has argued that aside from advancements in data, our society has seen little progress in the past century. Google's success, valued in hundreds of billions of dollars, stemmed from their innovative use of links as a voting system for website rankings. This suggests that we could apply similar principles to rank ideas directly, rather than merely directing users to external websites. Google's algorithm places trust in websites with more links, but this can be flawed as people often make mistakes.

A more robust algorithm could consider the number of valid arguments supporting a claim, rather than merely counting links to a website. By refining this approach, we could harness the power of big data to improve decision-making. What we need is collective, transparent intelligence, not closed, artificial intelligence.

Imagine a system where we assign scores to various elements, thereby building conclusion validity from evidence validity. These could include:Linkage scores, addressing the relevance of evidence to a conclusion,

• Uniqueness scores, indicating the lack of redundancy,
• Data validity scores, addressing verification,
• Logical validity scores,
• Bias-free scores.

This could provide a solution to life's most pressing challenges. Rational collective thinking necessitates the dissection, evaluation, and scoring of arguments. We can't begin to address our problems without this process.

Transparent, collective cost-benefit analysis is the key to avoiding major catastrophes such as wars, artificial intelligence threats, global warming, extinction events from comets, supernovae, and super-volcanoes.

As it stands, our public policy is declining in intelligence. We're filtering all our decisions through our limited attention spans, compounded by the demands of our full-time jobs. We must embrace the complexity of these issues and start working towards solutions.

Harnessing the Power of Crowdsourced Policy: The Cost-Benefit Analysis Party!

Welcome to the Cost-Benefit Analysis Party! Here, I plan to introduce a unique approach to crowdsourcing government policy that I've been refining over the past two decades. The primary goal? Automating conflict resolution and mediation processes.

A wealth of literature exists on effective conflict resolution. These tried-and-true techniques can be powerfully integrated into a policy analysis web forum.

A book that perfectly encapsulates the essence of my vision is David's Sling. It embodies the spirit of utilizing reason and logic to dissect policy matters.

This forum is designed to methodically analyze the potential costs, benefits, and risks of policy propositions. Each factor is evaluated based on the strength of its supporting arguments, thus determining its likelihood. This is not a simple process; it involves intricate mechanisms promoting quality argumentation. The defeat of weak arguments and the support of quality ones lead us to reliable conclusions about the potential outcomes of various policy actions.

Quality-promoting algorithms form the backbone of this framework. They incorporate elements of upvoting, downvoting, ranking, moderation, and expertise validation, akin to systems you'd see on LinkedIn, Wikipedia, and Kialo.

My vision extends beyond the forum itself. Why not establish a political party that endorses candidates willing to utilize this forum to inform their decisions?

In essence, this post serves as an argument for the potential effectiveness of crowdsourced policy forums. Together, we can revolutionize policy-making and foster a more inclusive, informed, and democratic future.

Revamping Democracy: The Imperative for Evidence-Based Political Parties

We stand at a crossroads. Our political parties and our collective decision-making processes are in disarray. The remedy? Replacing our existing political affiliations with parties rooted in cost-benefit analysis. This approach paves the way for rational political entities that resist the pull of personality cults and reject blinkered, one-sided worldviews.

Implementing the scientific method in politics is not just beneficial - it's vital. It is the fulcrum on which the future of democracy, freedom, and our planet balances. By harnessing the techniques of conflict resolution, we can chart the most effective path forward, meticulously weighing the costs, benefits, and risks associated with each policy decision.

Imagine open online forums that challenge the stronghold of special interests, biases, emotional reactions, and anecdotal evidence. Picture a political landscape that sidesteps the futile cheerleading and antagonism inherent in our existing political parties. Instead, the strength of our beliefs would be directly proportional to the robustness of the evidence supporting them.

This is more than a pipe dream; it's a necessity. Basing our policy decisions on solid evidence is the most cost-effective and reliable method for problem-solving. Moreover, it's the only approach capable of addressing the multifaceted challenges we face. Now, more than ever, we need to revamp our democratic processes to ensure a viable and sustainable future.