Argument Scores

 

The Imperative of Argument Scores

The path to truth has become increasingly challenging in an age of rampant misinformation and biased narratives. Skeptics often argue that absolute certainty in reality is an elusive ideal, casting doubt on the value of systems that link conclusion scores to pro/con evidence scores. However, it is precisely in this pursuit of truth, despite its imperfections, that such systems reveal their true worth. Just as imperfect tools like houses, cars, and maps enhance our lives, methods that quantify our confidence in beliefs based on supporting and opposing evidence offer our only path toward continued survival and progress. 

In a democratic society, where effective collective decision-making is paramount, a systematic approach to evaluating diverse opinions is becoming essential.

Framework for Evaluating Arguments

Our platform employs a structured framework for meticulously assessing arguments. We group similar ideas and situate them within the context of supporting and weakening evidence. This system uses simple templates to help us crowdsource the analysis of arguments for logical fallacies, biases, relevance, and importance to the subject, meticulously assigning scores based on a rigorous pro/con sub-argument evaluation process. 

The merit of each pro and con argument is assessed and ranked with a focus on logical soundness, verifiable evidence, and overall significance. The open nature of this forum ensures a comprehensive evaluation of diverse viewpoints, a cornerstone of well-informed decision-making in a democratic setting.

Advantages and Constraints of Argument Scores

While our system may not offer definitive pronouncements on an idea's inherent value, it excels at contextualizing conclusions. High-scoring arguments, supported by robust evidence, are prominently featured. In contrast, those with weaker evidence or flawed reasoning receive lower scores and appear at the end of the list.

Evolution of Ideas and Algorithmic Forums

The ability to propose new arguments or evaluate existing ones as true or false is how we attempt to drive societal change. The problem is everyone tries to construct forums where counter-arguments are ignored or presented in redundant narrative form, like internet recipe sites that try to tell you their life stories. We need the recipe and all the best pro/con arguments. We don't need biased narratives. Just show me the relevant arguments the most verified facts, and let me get to the heart of the matter. 

While high scores indicate strong pro arguments and substantial supporting evidence, it is crucial to remember that these scores represent not absolute truths but valuable insights. Similar to maps representing the world without capturing its entirety, our scores provide snapshots of an idea's current level of supporting and weakening arguments and evidence. Similarly, our platform serves as a tool for progress. No. This doesn't solve all problems, but it creates a forum that automatically weakens or strengthens conclusions if you defend or weaken their supporting or weakening arguments. 

This structure allows us to run each belief through a conflict resolution and cost-benefit analysis forum, capable of sifting through claims and identifying those most deserving of attention.

Conclusion

We aim to cultivate a dynamic environment where ideas undergo continuous evaluation and re-evaluation, evolving as new evidence and arguments emerge. By quantifying the strength of views and opinions, we offer a more precise assessment of their validity and relevance. Our platform is designed to remain a space for informed and evolving discourse where the value of an idea extends beyond mere popularity. 

This ensures that our discussions are guided by evidence and reason, fostering a commitment to informed decision-making.

See below for more information from the Idea Stock Exchange:

• Twitter: myclob - Follow for updates and insights related to the Idea Stock Exchange project.
• Blog: myclob.blogspot.com - Read detailed articles and analyses on various aspects of the project.
• LinkedIn: Michael Laub - Connect professionally and explore the network related to Idea Stock Exchange.
• Future of Politics: Project Site - Discover in-depth information about the Future of Politics project.
• Wikipedia: User:Myclob - Access user-contributed information and history of contributions.
• Kialo: Myclob's Profile - View and engage in structured debates and discussions.
• Audio: my-clob - Listen to audio content and discussions related to the projects.
• Official Website: ideastockexchange.org - Visit the official website for comprehensive information and resources.

Videos as reasons to agree or disagree

 

Harnessing the Power of Multimodal Content in Online Debates

I believe in the transformative potential of online forums to elevate debates by integrating a wide range of content types. This approach is crucial for thorough discourse, as it necessitates the inclusion of both supporting and opposing viewpoints on a single platform. To achieve this, we plan to organize various types of content—such as text arguments, videos, images, and songs—categorically, based on whether they support or oppose specific conclusions.

Categorization of Content:

• Videos: These can be documentaries, movies, TED talks, or user-submitted content. For instance, 'Batman' might be used to discuss vigilantism, while 'Rudy' can symbolize persistence and determination. Each video will be meticulously scored based on its relevance to the specific belief it is associated with, its viewership, and user evaluations emphasizing accuracy and logical consistency.

• Images: These can range from impactful photojournalism in warzones to expressive political cartoons and informative data graphs. Just like videos, images will be categorized based on whether they support or contradict a given conclusion.

Innovative Scoring System:

Our unique scoring system will evaluate each piece of content, especially movies, based on their alignment with specific beliefs. This system aims to identify "the best movie that agrees with x" and "the best movies that disagree with x," offering a nuanced view of each topic.

Interactive User Engagement:

Users can actively participate by submitting content along with their interpretations of how it supports or opposes particular beliefs. For example, a film like 'Schindler's List' may have varying relevance scores depending on whether it is associated with beliefs about the Holocaust or German efforts during that era. Each belief will have its dedicated page, featuring arguments for and against, enabling users to delve into the validity of each video’s relation to the belief.

Discussion and Resolution:

This diverse content approach, combined with user interaction and a sophisticated scoring system, allows for a dynamic and comprehensive understanding of different viewpoints. It encourages users to engage in meaningful debates, challenging their perspectives and contributing to an evolving discussion. By providing a platform where various forms of content are analyzed and debated, we aim to facilitate automated conflict resolution and nuanced cost-benefit analysis, ultimately leading to more informed and balanced conclusions.

Through this multimodal approach, the Idea Stock Exchange will stand as a pioneering platform for intellectual discourse, enabling users to explore and understand complex issues in a holistic manner.

Videos Agreeing with Environmental Conservation

1. Nature Documentaries:

   • Image Description: Lush green forests, diverse wildlife in their natural habitat, or beautiful landscapes showcasing the earth's biodiversity.

2. Activism and Awareness Campaigns:

   • Image Description: Activists holding placards with messages about saving the planet, or images showing positive outcomes of conservation efforts like a thriving animal species once endangered.

3. Scientific Explanations:

   • Image Description: Scientists working in the field, graphics showing the effects of conservation efforts on climate change, or technology used in environmental protection.

Videos Disagreeing with Environmental Conservation

1. Economic Development Focus:

   • Image Description: Urban expansion, industrial developments, or bustling cityscapes to represent the prioritization of economic growth over environmental concerns.

2. Political Debates:

   • Image Description: Politicians or public figures in debate settings, possibly making gestures or expressions of disagreement, representing opposition to environmental policies.

3. Documentaries on Failed Conservation Efforts:

   • Image Description: Landscapes showing the aftermath of failed conservation policies, such as deforestation or pollution, or visuals of protests against certain environmental policies.

Each of these images would encapsulate the essence of the videos' stance on the issue, allowing viewers to immediately grasp the perspective being presented.

I believe in the potential of online forums to foster productive debates. For meaningful discourse, it's crucial to bring together arguments supporting and opposing a belief on the same page. Simply presenting a compelling argument without addressing counterpoints does not suffice for a thorough understanding.

We will separate all the types of content, so you can have reasons to agree and disagree, as well as videos, images, songs, etc. 

Images that agree and disagree can be further classified as photojournalism from warzones, political cartoons, graphs of data, etc. 

Therefore, my forums will feature videos that can be said to agree or disagree with specific conclusions.

For example, does Batman defend the idea of vigilantism or taking the law into your own hands? Rudy is a movie that encourages you to not give up. The Lord of the Rings movies have anti-war and anti-industrial themes. "Dirty Money" on Netflix points out times when people cheat, lie, and steal, and could be used as evidence that our government does a poor job of regulating the economy.  

Also, TED talks and other documentaries are specifically made to convince you of something and have less to do with entertaining you. 

These videos will be ranked based on viewership and user evaluations, focusing on accuracy and logical consistency. Each video will be assigned a score reflecting its relevance and quality.

Moreover, we will assess the relationship between each video and the conclusion it supports or opposes. For example, a film like 'Schindler's List' may score highly in terms of quality, but its relevance will vary depending on the belief it is associated with. It could be linked to beliefs about German efforts to help Jews during the Holocaust or as evidence of the Holocaust's reality. Each of these connections will have its own dedicated page with pro/con subarguments for each belief. 

Users can submit movies with an explanation of how they support or oppose a particular conclusion. Users will be able to debate the validity of each video's relationship to the conclusion.

The Oppenheimer Initiative: A New Political Party for Open Dialogue and Fact-Based Choices

In a 1949 speech at the University of California, Berkeley, Robert Oppenheimer stressed the value of openness and questioned the wisdom of confrontational foreign policies. He believed these principles could be the bedrock for a more rational and effective political system.

Given the backdrop of the Cold War and the heightened tension between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, Oppenheimer's call for openness and collaboration was remarkably prescient.

He also noted that openness alone isn't sufficient to address the world's complexities. Oppenheimer said, "The challenges of navigating the subtle, the intricate, and the unknown aren't just political; they span science, daily life, and even art. The solution often lies in 'style,' which balances assertiveness with restraint and humility, enabling effective rather than absolute action. In foreign policy, style helps us align our core objectives with differing viewpoints."

Oppenheimer, as a scientist advocating for open dialogue, questioned the risks of wielding power without thoughtful analysis. He wanted to be able to ask, 'How many nuclear weapons do we actually need for security?' At that time, even posing such a question was considered unacceptable and was excluded from public debate. When conversations are limited, groupthink and confirmation bias can easily dominate, particularly in political or governmental settings where an 'us versus them' mentality often prevails. The focus tends to shift from addressing the concerns of the other side to merely defeating them.

Oppenheimer faced challenges due to his early liberal leanings and Jewish heritage. His focus on openness clashed with the McCarthyism doctrine, which emphasized secrecy and ideological uniformity. He criticized this culture of secrecy, arguing that "secrecy deprives the government of the collective wisdom of the community."

What if we could establish a new political party dedicated to open dialogue, collective wisdom, and Oppenheimer's vision of an open society? I propose a party that backs candidates who base their decisions on thorough cost-benefit analyses and open debates. This party would operate on a transparent platform, similar to Wikipedia, where anyone can contribute to evaluating policy options by ranking the strength of their supporting arguments and evidence.

Technically speaking, I suggest using the now-public-domain Google PageRank algorithm to assess the strength of arguments based on their interconnections and the collective strength of their pro/con sub-arguments. These arguments would be organized into separate debates to evaluate their logical soundness, empirical support, relevance, and potential impact. While other algorithms could be employed, discussing them in detail might be too technical.

Such a methodology could have prevented past errors. Oppenheimer wisely observed, "Coercion is not the answer to our foreign policy challenges." Our history is marred by failed alliances with leaders who professed anti-communism but acted in anti-democratic and oppressive ways. Ill-informed decisions have led us into costly conflicts, such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Oppenheimer's insights offer a roadmap for a better future. He reminded us that there was a time when politics and science were closely aligned, and we should strive to reestablish that connection through evidence-based decision-making.

Let's form an "Oppenheimer Party" that employs a disciplined methodology to guide power through reasoned dialogue. This approach would organize arguments pro and con, evaluate them with humility, and take action within our confidence levels, all while continually refining the system.

Government-Sponsored Disinformation: Combating the Trolls through Democratic Principles

Democracy’s Mighty Arsenal

To counter disinformation, let's extend the democratic principles of Wikipedia across platforms. We'll crowdsource cost-benefit analysis and conflict resolution, turning anger into constructive dialogue.

Fighting external trolls will also defeat our internal trolls and help us break Free from Bias

The following approach that links conclusion strength to evidence strength automagically destroys my-side bias and confirmation bias because it removes arguments from feelings and uses evidence to "weigh" conclusions:

Here's how:

1.       Isolating Each Belief: Evaluate each belief on its unique page, like Wikipedia, focusing on the evidence for and against it. This will keep the topic from changing.

2.       Linking Related Beliefs: Enhance collective understanding by analyzing interconnections between ideas and gauging their strengths and weaknesses. Putting similar ways of saying the same thing will allow us to reduce redundancy and truly have one page for each belief, not matter what language, dialect, or style is used to express it. We'll group similar expressions of ideas, assigning scores to determine their equivalency and identifying the "best" way to articulate them.

3.       Brainstorming Reasons: Participants are encouraged to explore reasons for both agreement and disagreement, fostering a well-rounded understanding of the issues.

4.       Pro/Con Analysis: Every conspiracy theory undergoes rigorous evaluation through a pro/con analysis, where the strength of supporting and opposing evidence is meticulously weighed, and bad arguments are not deleted, just moved to the bottom of the lists, so conspiracy theorist can see all the valid counterarguments, keeping their arguments and ultimately their belief from gaining traction. In a world where bad arguments don't help and can even hurt their cause, they will eventually run out of steam.

5.       Evidence Linking: The strength of each belief is tied directly to the robustness of the evidence, promoting transparency and honesty in our assessments.

6.       Identifying Logical Fallacies: We scrutinize information for logical fallacies and provide verification scores, grounding our plans in evidence.

7.       We will separate arguments by their type, to keep them separated (e.g., arguments about logical fallacies, verification or replication, importance, and linkage) 

The Path to a Stronger Future

With this robust approach to information evaluation, we pave the way for a brighter tomorrow. Collaboration becomes the driving force behind an enlightened society where democratic participation thrives.

So, let's steer our course with clarity, reason, and precision. We can neutralize disinformation, triumph over biased thinking, and lay the foundation for a new era of logical decision-making and societal unity. Let's forge ahead with a specific and actionable plan, embracing the power of collective intelligence to safeguard our democracy.

Just the facts, please

A widely accepted maxim of good decision-making is not mixing your values and facts. Once you have gathered all your facts, you can use your values to select between them. However, this is why lady justice uses a blindfold when determining the facts. That is the problem with Fox News and CNN. We don’t have different values now but different (so-called) facts. When discussing the world, we need to identify the facts without hopes, fears or fit the world into pre-written stories about how we are angels and those who disagree are stupid or evil. When designing an elevator, you might be afraid your new design is too weak, hoping it is much better. However, you must run tests to determine what its actual capacity is. Then you can use your values, which want you to have a significant safety factor, to make a statement about its maximum load. You wouldn’t start this process by selling the elevator without running a test to ensure its capacity is accurate and that you have a significant safety factor.

It is the same with evidence-based policy. First, we will conduct a process to identify each policy's most likely costs and benefits. Then we will use a separate process to identify and weigh the values and interests of each party within Maslow’s hierarchy of needs and identify to which degree each decision should be made by the most likely overall or specific costs, benefits, and the appropriate level of risk for each decision.