Harnessing Idea Futures: A Dialog on the Power of Prediction Markets

Robin Hanson, the innovator behind Idea Futures, and I recently engaged in a stimulating exchange of ideas. I've been fascinated by the potential of Idea Futures for quite some time and the opportunity to discuss my thoughts with Hanson was indeed a privilege. Here's the crux of our conversation, where I argue for the application of Idea Futures beyond just scientific advancement to general dispute resolution and politics.

Our conversation began with me expressing my interest in becoming involved in Idea Futures. As a believer in the power of structured, informed debate, I proposed two columns for each statement: Reasons to agree, and Reasons to disagree. Organizing these reasons according to how many people agree with them, I argued, would ensure a more balanced and informed discourse. This concept is something I've been experimenting with on my own projects, which can be explored on my GitHub and the Group Intel website.

In addition to these columns, I proposed weighing an idea based on factors such as the number of reasons to agree or disagree with it, the bettor's certainty of the validity of their reason, and the popularity of the idea. I strongly believe this can help in promoting better quality information and reducing the clutter of irrelevant or unverified information.

Hanson raised a valid concern about how to encourage people to fill in these structured forms with their reasons for their claims. He argued that most people are more inclined towards formats that directly mimic familiar forms of ordinary conversation. I agreed, but also highlighted the potential of betting markets, as people are motivated by the prospect of monetary gain.

Drawing from the stock market analogy, I proposed a system where people can bet on whether ideas will rise or fall in popularity. Much like investing in a company, bettors would be investing in the popularity of an idea. This, I believe, has the potential to create a more engaged and informed public discourse. For instance, imagine being able to buy stock in the idea that Abraham Lincoln was the best president!

Hanson, however, was skeptical about this idea, arguing that there might be too many ideas out there for this to work. He also highlighted the potential for manipulation in a system that rewards popularity over accuracy. But I believe the market would self-correct over time. Just as the stock market is susceptible to manipulation, so too would an idea market. But in the long run, only those who truly understand people and what they will bet on would be rewarded.

In summary, I believe that an Idea Futures market, if structured correctly, can be a powerful tool for promoting informed public discourse. It would allow people to directly invest in ideas they believe in, fostering a greater focus on ideas and their merits. While there are potential issues with this approach, I believe they can be mitigated with careful design and regulation.

Hanson and I may not see eye to eye on every aspect of Idea Futures, but it's clear that we share a belief in the potential of such a system to revolutionize public discourse. If you're interested in this project and want to contribute to its development, feel free to check out the ongoing work on GitHub and the Group Intel website. Your insights and expertise could help shape the future of public discourse.