Favorite and Recent Books

Favorite Books

1. Deschooling Society – Ivan Illich
2. David's Sling – Marc Stiegler
3. A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court – Mark Twain
4. Pastwatch – Orson Scott Card
5. Getting to Yes – William Ury
6. Rationality – Steven Pinker
7. Factfulness – Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund
8. Enlightenment Now – Steven Pinker
9. Think Again – Adam Grant
10. Circe – Madeline Miller
11. Thinking, Fast and Slow – Daniel Kahneman
12. Island in the Sea of Time – S. M. Stirling

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Books I Read

2024

1. Hillbilly Elegy – J.D. Vance
2. The Three-Body Problem – Cixin Liu
3. What This Comedian Said Will Shock You – Bill Maher
4. Why Nationalism – Yael Tamir
5. Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! – Richard P. Feynman
6. Ours Was the Shining Future – David Leonhardt
7. Romney – McKay Coppins
8. Democracy Awakening – Heather Cox Richardson
9. Red Rising, Golden Son, Sons of Ares, Dark Age – Pierce Brown
10. Elantris – Brandon Sanderson
11. Renegade – Adam Kinzinger, Michael D’Antonio
12. Enough – Cassidy Hutchison
13. Oath and Honor – Liz Cheney
14. The Graveyard Book – Neil Gaiman
15. Neverwhere – Neil Gaiman
16. Norse Mythology II – Neil Gaiman, P. Craig Russell
17. Social Justice Fallacies – Thomas Sowell
18. Black Rednecks and White Liberals – Thomas Sowell
19. Barbarians Inside the Gates and Other Controversial Essays – Thomas Sowell
20. American Prometheus – Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin

2023

1. 12 Rules for Life – Jordan B. Peterson
2. The Bomber Mafia – Malcolm Gladwell
3. Apocalypse Never – Michael Shellenberger
4. One Billion Americans – Matthew Yglesias
5. Magic Bites – Ilona Andrews
6. Cultish – Amanda Montell
7. Good Omens – Neil Gaiman, Terry Pratchett
8. Ukraine – Serhy Yekelchyk
9. San Fransicko – Michael Shellenberger
10. Against Empathy – Paul Bloom
11. Iron Curtain – Anne Applebaum
12. Twilight of Democracy – Anne Applebaum
13. Under the Banner of Heaven – Jon Krakauer
14. Noise – Daniel Kahneman, Oliver Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
15. Nudge – Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein
16. Dune – Frank Herbert
17. Their Eyes Were Watching God – Zora Neale Hurston
18. How to Change Your Mind – Michael Pollan
19. Extreme Ownership – Jocko Willink, Leif Babin

Pro/Con Webpages

Enhanced Method for Scoring and Integrating Webpages into Online Debates:

Pro/Con Argumentation for Webpages:

Objective: Identify the best web pages that support or oppose each belief.

Mechanism: Users submit pro/con arguments assessing whether a webpage is pro, con, or balanced regarding a particular belief and regarding the web page's quality. These arguments will have sub-arguments addressing their verification level, lack of logical fallacies, relevance, and importance.

Logical Coherence Assessment:

Focus: Examine the content on each webpage for the presence of logical fallacies.

User Participation: As with everything else on this webpage, we will use reason rank to evaluate the relative performance of pro/con arguments to establish whether the relative performance of ideas that the content is logically sound and fallacies-free. This will involve quotations from the site and pro/con arguments that the content is or isn't a logical fallacy. These arguments will also be evaluated for logical fallacies, verification level, importance, and relevance.

Independent Verification of Claims:

Verification Process: Assess the extent to which claims on the webpage have been independently verified.

Community Input: Similar to above, users will access the level of independent verification of content from the website.

Relevance to the Belief:

Evaluation: Determine how relevant the content of a webpage is to the central belief it is associated with.

Criteria: Use specific arguments and evidence to establish the connection between the webpage content and the belief in question. A webpage may have great content. However, depending on the performance of these pro/con arguments, it may have a low linkage score to specific beliefs and high linkage or relevance scores to other beliefs. For example, a webpage publishing the results of ice-sheet measurements may have a high linkage score to a belief about global warming. This belief may have high linkage scores to other beliefs, such as a global carbon tax or carbon trading platform.

Importance to the Topic:

Assessment: Gauge the importance of the webpage’s content in the broader context of the topic.

User Engagement: Users discuss and score the significance of the web page's contributions to understanding the belief. The above relevance score answers the question: If this were true, would it necessarily strengthen that conclusion? This score indicates the degree to which a specific question, relative to other considerations, determines a conclusion's truth. Spiting in the ocean may raise the sea level. However, it is a minor contributor, so we need a separate importance score and the logically dependent score mentioned above.

Dynamic Scoring System:

Implementation: Aggregate the performance of pro/con arguments for each of the above criteria to determine individual logic, verification, relevant, and importance scores. Use these upvotes, evaluations, experts' input, and other user-chosen measures to develop overall scores for different websites.

Outcome: This score dictates whether and how prominently a webpage is listed on each belief page.

Belief Page Integration:

Structure: The front page for each belief will feature the top supporting and opposing web pages, determined by the aggregated scores from user evaluations.

Transparency: Indicates how each webpage ranks according to the community’s assessment across different criteria.

Continuous User Interaction:

Engagement: Users continuously contribute to and revise the scoring of webpages as new information or perspectives emerge.

Adaptability: The platform dynamically updates the webpage rankings to reflect current evaluations.

Comprehensive Debate Facilitation:

Purpose: Provide users with a nuanced and well-rounded understanding of different viewpoints on a belief through rigorously evaluated web pages.

Benefit: Encourages informed decision-making and a deeper comprehension of the topic.

Conclusion:

This enhanced method for evaluating and integrating webpages into online debates strongly emphasizes community-driven analysis, logical coherence, and relevance to the topic. By allowing users to actively engage in the evaluation process, the platform ensures that the web pages presented are relevant, vital, accurate, and logically sound, contributing to a more informed and balanced online debate environment.

Algorithms can be used to group similar ways of saying the same thing and verify that the webpage still says what users said it said, among other transparent tasks, with user approval.

Books, Movies, and Even Songs That Agree and Disagree: Building a Pro/Con Media Ecosystem

 

Unifying Pro/Con Media for Informed Debate

 

The online landscape often suffers from echo chambers and fragmented information access, hindering constructive dialogue and informed opinion formation. Individuals tend to consume information through isolated channels, reinforcing existing beliefs and limiting exposure to diverse perspectives. This lack of comprehensive understanding can lead to biased viewpoints and hinder our ability to engage in meaningful discourse. To address these challenges, I propose a novel and comprehensive approach to aggregating and organizing pro/con media for various conclusions.

 

1. Aggregating Pro/Con Media:

• Comprehensive Databases: Identify and compile the top books, movies, images (i.e., political cartoons or photojournalism), webpages, and other media that support and oppose a wide range of conclusions.
• Centralized Platform: Create a central platform where users can access this aggregated media, offering a one-stop shop for exploring diverse viewpoints. 
• This will help because you should know the top books, web pages, documentaries, articles, and historical proponents or opponents of an idea to be a true expert. Additionally, we need to know the consensus source of information to create tests to quiz others to determine their level of expertise. 
• The Dunning-Kruger effect causes everyone to think they are an expert. Still, generating a list of the top pro/con books, movies, and webpages and why they are (or are not necessary) should help the crowd come to a more evidence-based assumption of their level of expertise. 

2. Facilitating Critical Analysis and Discussion:

• Community-Driven Argumentation: Users submit pro/con/unbiased media and supporting arguments, with ratings for credibility, accuracy, verification, logical validity, and category (pro/con/neutral). Subarguments are further evaluated for along the same and additional classes. This fosters a data-driven approach to critical analysis and debate.
• Open Commenting System: This allows users to share their thoughts and analyses on each media piece, fostering constructive dialogue and critical thinking.
• Moderation and Fact-Checking: Implement robust crowd-sourced moderation and fact-checking mechanisms to ensure the platform remains a safe and reliable source of information.

3. Empowering Users to Engage with Diverse Perspectives:

• Personalized Recommendations: Using algorithms to recommend media items that align with individual users' interests and using conflict resolution and cost-benefit analysis techniques to reward users who challenge their existing biases.
• Counter-Argument Exploration: Highlight pro/con viewpoints with each media piece, helping users see supporting and opposing perspectives about the media in context. This will help them explore pro/con subarguments for the top-performing views they initially rejected. 

4. Building a Knowledge Base for Informed Decision-Making:

• Topic-Specific Archives: Organize the aggregated media into comprehensive archives for each belief, allowing users to delve deep and trace all the assumptions for each argument. 
• Data-Driven Insights: Use data analysis tools to identify patterns and trends within the media landscape, providing valuable insights into public opinion and understanding.
• Promoting Evidence-Based Reasoning: Encourage users to base their opinions on factual evidence and sound reasoning rather than relying on personal biases or emotions. 

Additionally, the Dunning-Kruger effect often leads to an inflated sense of expertise. 

To combat this we propose a system using pro/con media lists alongside branching pro/con arguments and evidence concerning the media's validity, accuracy, and necessity for expertise. This system offers several benefits:

1. Self-assessment:

• Users can see all the media the community considers essential for proper understanding and see that they don't know the data or arguments presented in that media. They can see how these viewpoints do on the forum if they think the media isn't necessary for expertise. Again, if the media is sufficiently high-scoring, the arguments against their importance should have already been defeated. 
• This facilitates a data-driven approach to self-assessment, moving beyond mere gut feeling.

2. Critical thinking:

• Branching pro/con arguments encourages users to analyze the media and evaluate its strengths and weaknesses.
• This fosters critical thinking skills and enables users to move beyond superficial interpretations.

4. Diversifying perspectives:

• Pro/con lists present multiple viewpoints, exposing users to diverse perspectives.
• This broadens their understanding and facilitates a more nuanced approach to knowledge.

7. Promoting continuous learning:

• The system promotes a constant learning culture by highlighting essential media and encouraging self-assessment.
• This motivates users to continually expand their knowledge and expertise on a chosen topic.

Implementing pro/con media lists with branching pro/con reasons provides a valuable tool for self-assessment, critical thinking, and knowledge acquisition within the forum community. 

A comprehensive list of the top pro/con media and why their consumption is critical to understanding the issue will help calibrate people's assumed list of expertise. The very existence of this framework will automate the resolution of conflict. People will attempt to invalidate media that supports the other side. They will either succeed in discrediting the opposing media or, more likely if the media is high-scoring, see that their arguments have already been considered, in well-documented pro/con arguments, and that those arguments did not receive very many good supporting arguments and evidence, but did receive lots of high scoring opposing arguments and evidence. 

By implementing this innovative approach, we can create a platform that fosters informed and meaningful debate, promotes critical thinking and empathy, and ultimately contributes to a more informed and engaged society.

Balancing Interests: The Scale of Agreement and Disagreement

 

The Idea Stock Exchange: Mapping Human Interests and Needs

Revolutionizing Dialogue through Interest-Centric Analysis

The Idea Stock Exchange (ISE) transcends conventional debate frameworks by probing the core motivations underlying human beliefs. Utilizing Maslow's hierarchy of needs and cutting-edge analytical tools, ISE fosters deeper understanding, bridges divides, and creates pathways for meaningful connections.

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Foundational Framework: A Multidimensional Model for Interests

ISE introduces a multidimensional interest evaluation model that factors in:

• Need Intensity (N): Measures the urgency or strength of an interest.
• Motivational Depth (D): Captures how deeply rooted an interest is in personal or cultural values.
• Relational Complexity (R): Assesses the interdependencies among stakeholders’ interests.
• Contextual Alignment (C): Evaluates the relevance of an interest within specific situations or conflicts.
• Maslow’s Needs Hierarchy Multiplier (M): Adjusts the significance of interests based on their hierarchy level, giving greater weight to foundational needs like safety and physiological well-being.

Comprehensive Interest Score (I):

The synthesized score is derived using the formula:

$$I = \sum \left[ (N \times D \times R \times C) \times M \right]$$

This approach quantifies the complexity of human motivations, providing a robust metric for interest evaluation.

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Maslow’s Needs Framework for Interest Categorization

1. Physiological and Safety Needs:
   • Include survival-level motivations like food, water, and security.
   • Impact core policies or individual lifestyle choices.
2. Belonging and Esteem Needs:
   • Encompass social acceptance, community, recognition, and respect.
   • Drive societal interactions and personal relationships.
3. Self-Actualization and Transcendence:
   • Cover personal growth, purpose, and the quest for meaning.
   • Reflect higher-order motivations to contribute to larger causes.

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Innovative Mechanisms for Interest Analysis

ISE employs advanced strategies to uncover and evaluate interests:

1. Data Collection and Validation

• Crowdsourcing Platforms: Encourage user participation to surface diverse beliefs and motivations.
• Discussion Thread Analysis: Use real-time tracking to extract implicit and explicit interests.
• NLP and Semantic Tools: Identify recurring themes and cluster similar interests for clearer understanding.

2. Mapping and Visualizing Interests

• ReasonRank System: Assesses logical coherence and evidence quality to validate interest claims.
• Linkage Scores: Measure the strength of connections between interests and associated beliefs, ensuring relevance.
• Dynamic Visualizations: Illustrate interrelations among interests, enabling users to navigate shared and divergent needs.

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Technological Innovations Supporting ISE

Semantic Analysis and Clustering

• Reduces redundancy by grouping equivalent interests and motivations.
• Highlights synergies between stakeholders’ needs, fostering collaborative solutions.

Integrative Solution Generation

• Algorithms propose balanced compromises, aligning diverse interests while predicting stakeholder impacts.
• Incorporates cost-benefit analysis and ensures alignment with Maslow’s hierarchy for practical, effective resolutions.

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Applications and Impact

1. Conflict Resolution

• Prioritizes and aligns competing interests using structured analysis.
• Designs integrative solutions that maximize shared benefits while minimizing trade-offs.

2. Policy Development

• Maps the interests of diverse stakeholder groups to craft inclusive and actionable policies.
• Ensures policies address core human needs, fostering broad societal support.

3. Personal Growth

• Highlights patterns in individual motivations, promoting self-awareness and improving relationships.
• Offers tools for navigating interpersonal dynamics and building empathy.

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Transformative Advantages

1. Deeper Empathy and Understanding:

   • Encourages recognition of shared human motivations across divides.
   • Promotes meaningful dialogue rooted in commonality.

2. Enhanced Conflict Resolution:

   • Focuses on aligning interests to minimize recurring disputes.

3. Evidence-Based Decision-Making:

   • Motivates rational and data-driven discourse over emotionally charged debates.

4. Broader Societal Collaboration:

   • Lays the groundwork for inclusive progress by aligning diverse needs and perspectives.

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Vision Statement

The Idea Stock Exchange envisions a future where conflict becomes an opportunity for connection and growth. By mapping and understanding human interests through:

• Decoding motivations, we reveal the deeper drivers of beliefs.
• Bridging divides, we align disparate perspectives through shared needs.
• Fostering collaboration, we nurture collective progress and empathy.

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Implementation Roadmap

Technological Development

• Develop advanced NLP algorithms for nuanced interest extraction and classification.
• Craft interactive tools for motivation mapping and visual interest landscapes.

Ethical Safeguards

• Prioritize privacy protection and prevent misuse of personal data.
• Address algorithmic biases to maintain fairness and transparency.
• Empower users with agency and control over their contributions and insights.

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Conclusion

By integrating Maslow’s hierarchy with the ReasonRank system, the Idea Stock Exchange redefines conflict resolution as a pathway to profound human connection. This approach transcends surface-level argumentation, enriching both individual and collective experiences by grounding beliefs in the shared fabric of human needs and motivations. The ISE serves as a beacon for empathetic, solution-oriented dialogue that paves the way for a more cooperative and understanding world.

Argument Scores

 

The Imperative of Argument Scores

The path to truth has become increasingly challenging in an age of rampant misinformation and biased narratives. Skeptics often argue that absolute certainty in reality is an elusive ideal, casting doubt on the value of systems that link conclusion scores to pro/con evidence scores. However, it is precisely in this pursuit of truth, despite its imperfections, that such systems reveal their true worth. Just as imperfect tools like houses, cars, and maps enhance our lives, methods that quantify our confidence in beliefs based on supporting and opposing evidence offer our only path toward continued survival and progress. 

In a democratic society, where effective collective decision-making is paramount, a systematic approach to evaluating diverse opinions is becoming essential.

Framework for Evaluating Arguments

Our platform employs a structured framework for meticulously assessing arguments. We group similar ideas and situate them within the context of supporting and weakening evidence. This system uses simple templates to help us crowdsource the analysis of arguments for logical fallacies, biases, relevance, and importance to the subject, meticulously assigning scores based on a rigorous pro/con sub-argument evaluation process. 

The merit of each pro and con argument is assessed and ranked with a focus on logical soundness, verifiable evidence, and overall significance. The open nature of this forum ensures a comprehensive evaluation of diverse viewpoints, a cornerstone of well-informed decision-making in a democratic setting.

Advantages and Constraints of Argument Scores

While our system may not offer definitive pronouncements on an idea's inherent value, it excels at contextualizing conclusions. High-scoring arguments, supported by robust evidence, are prominently featured. In contrast, those with weaker evidence or flawed reasoning receive lower scores and appear at the end of the list.

Evolution of Ideas and Algorithmic Forums

The ability to propose new arguments or evaluate existing ones as true or false is how we attempt to drive societal change. The problem is everyone tries to construct forums where counter-arguments are ignored or presented in redundant narrative form, like internet recipe sites that try to tell you their life stories. We need the recipe and all the best pro/con arguments. We don't need biased narratives. Just show me the relevant arguments the most verified facts, and let me get to the heart of the matter. 

While high scores indicate strong pro arguments and substantial supporting evidence, it is crucial to remember that these scores represent not absolute truths but valuable insights. Similar to maps representing the world without capturing its entirety, our scores provide snapshots of an idea's current level of supporting and weakening arguments and evidence. Similarly, our platform serves as a tool for progress. No. This doesn't solve all problems, but it creates a forum that automatically weakens or strengthens conclusions if you defend or weaken their supporting or weakening arguments. 

This structure allows us to run each belief through a conflict resolution and cost-benefit analysis forum, capable of sifting through claims and identifying those most deserving of attention.

Conclusion

We aim to cultivate a dynamic environment where ideas undergo continuous evaluation and re-evaluation, evolving as new evidence and arguments emerge. By quantifying the strength of views and opinions, we offer a more precise assessment of their validity and relevance. Our platform is designed to remain a space for informed and evolving discourse where the value of an idea extends beyond mere popularity. 

This ensures that our discussions are guided by evidence and reason, fostering a commitment to informed decision-making.

See below for more information from the Idea Stock Exchange:

• Twitter: myclob - Follow for updates and insights related to the Idea Stock Exchange project.
• Blog: myclob.blogspot.com - Read detailed articles and analyses on various aspects of the project.
• LinkedIn: Michael Laub - Connect professionally and explore the network related to Idea Stock Exchange.
• Future of Politics: Project Site - Discover in-depth information about the Future of Politics project.
• Wikipedia: User:Myclob - Access user-contributed information and history of contributions.
• Kialo: Myclob's Profile - View and engage in structured debates and discussions.
• Audio: my-clob - Listen to audio content and discussions related to the projects.
• Official Website: ideastockexchange.org - Visit the official website for comprehensive information and resources.