Oct 1, 2012

There is a price to strength, but a greater price to weakness, because weakness tempts aggression

Supporting Evidence

Logical Arguments:

  1. Strength deters aggression: Strong entities, be it individuals, organizations, or nations, often deter potential aggressors by showcasing their capacity to retaliate or protect themselves. On a global scale, this is evident in the concept of deterrence theory in international relations.

  2. Weakness invites exploitation: Entities perceived as weak can become targets for more aggressive entities that seek to exploit their vulnerabilities. This can manifest in various ways, from cyberattacks on vulnerable systems to geopolitical moves against weaker states.

Supporting Evidence (Data, Studies):

  1. Studies in geopolitics and international relations support the idea that strong nations tend to face fewer overt threats than weaker ones. For instance, research by Jervis (1978) on the "Deterrence Theory of War" underlines this.

Supporting Books:

  1. "The Logic of Violence in International Relations" by Robert Jervis

Supporting Videos:

  1. A range of YouTube videos and lectures on geopolitics and international relations theory, such as those available from the channel 'Caspiancey.'

Supporting Organizations and their Websites:

  1. Council on Foreign Relations
  2. International Studies Association

Supporting Podcasts:

  1. "The World Next Week" by CFR

Unbiased Experts:

  1. Scholars in the field of international relations, such as John Mearsheimer and Robert Jervis

Opposing Evidence

Logical Arguments:

  1. Strength can provoke escalation: Displaying overt strength can sometimes provoke a response from potential aggressors, leading to an escalation of conflict.

  2. Diplomacy over force: Advocates for diplomacy and negotiation argue that it's more effective to resolve conflicts and deter aggression.

Supporting Evidence (Data, Studies):

  1. Research has shown that diplomatic measures can successfully resolve conflicts and deter aggression. One example is a study by Fortna (2003) titled "Scraps of Paper? Agreements and the Durability of Peace."

Supporting Books:

  1. "Diplomacy" by Henry Kissinger

Supporting Videos:

  1. Numerous TED talks and other online videos advocate for diplomacy and soft power, like Joseph Nye's lectures on Soft Power.

Supporting Organizations and their Websites:

  1. The Diplomatic Courier
  2. American Diplomacy

Supporting Podcasts:

  1. "Global Dispatches – World News That Matters" by Mark Leon Goldberg

Unbiased Experts:

  1. Experts who advocate for diplomacy and soft power, such as Joseph Nye.

Further Exploration:

For a more comprehensive pro/con analysis and collective intelligence, visit Group Intel and Idea Stock Exchange.

Sep 29, 2012

Kids do and say funny things

Best reasons to agree: +


    1. James' special power is that he has a shovel. James said he's not afraid of geese because he has a special power. His special power is that he has a hammer.
    2. Your baby trying to get out. Ask Megan.
    3. James tried jumping really high on the trampoline so that he could see Finley in heaven.
    4. He told his mom, your hair is spicy. What does that mean, she asked. It means you need to wash it.

    Warning: comments may not be funny, however they are note worthy for me to note as a way to understand that people are different and that they see the world differently. 

    Constructing Jesus 
    April 22, 2012:

    I was making myself lunch, and my son James was in the kitchen eating tortilla chips and salsa. He had stayed home from church on dubious assertions that he was sick. I was listening to a Mormon Stories Podcast, but turned it off when the Circle the Wagons conference came on (I didn't want to explain to him what a Gay Mormon was, yet).

    James could tell it was talking about religion and he asked if it was "our church" they were talking about. I said yes. He then informed me that "Jesus made our church" (Mormons believe that Jesus re-established his church through Joseph Smith. I assumed that he must have heard this in Sunday School and that he wanted to have a theological discussion).

    I have been doubting my faith narrative, but want to let James find his own way, so I just asked if he thinks Jesus made our Church. His answer was: "Yes, its really old". I understood this statement to be a logical explanation of how we know Jesus made our church, that our doctrines can be traced back to Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob. It seemed to me that his Sunday school teachers had been pretty busy.

    I was using my good listening skills by reflecting what he said to me back to him. I said, "you think our Church is really old"? He said, "Yes... All the lights are broken".

    The light bulb went off, and I asked, "You think Jesus made our church, because it is really old?"

    "Yes"

    "James, I don't think Jesus made our Church".

    To which he said, "Well, why don't you just look it up on the internet?"

    So, if anyone knows a webpage that tracks which ward buildings Jesus physically constructed while he was here on earth, James and I would like to know.

    There are some good and bad in LDS scriptures

    Idea Stock Exchange: Analysis of LDS Scriptures

    Exploring Perspectives on LDS Scriptures

    Good Scriptures
    1. "1 Nephi 3:18 - Importance of preserving knowledge for future generations."
    2. "Mormon 9:4 - God as a compassionate rewarder, focusing on happiness. "Behold, I say unto you that ye would be more miserable to dwell with a holy and just God, under a consciousness of your filthiness before him, than ye would to dwell with the damned souls in hell." This can sound harsh, but mathmatically it shows that God is maximizing happiness
    Interests of Those Who Agree
  1. Maintaining traditional values, promoting positive religious teachings.
  2. Values Supporting the Conclusion
  3. Preservation, compassion, optimism in divine nature.
  4. Bad Scriptures
    1. "1 Nephi 4:6 - Perception of God's silence as neglect."
    2. "1 Nephi 7:12 - Inconsistency in divine involvement over time."
    3. "1 Nephi 8:33 - Possible criticism of religious institutions."
    4. "1 Nephi 8:37 - Harsh view of divine judgment and exclusion."
    Interests of Those Who Disagree
  5. Encouraging modern religious interpretations, challenging traditional views.
  6. Values Opposing the Conclusion
  7. Critical thinking, modernization of religious beliefs, inclusivity.
  8. Idea Stock Exchange: Benefits and Costs of LDS Scriptures Interpretations

    Analysis of Benefits and Costs of Interpreting LDS Scriptures

    Benefits
    1. Moral guidance and ethical perspectives.
    2. Preservation and respect for historical religious traditions.
    3. Reinforcement of community and familial values.
    4. Personal comfort and spiritual reassurance.
    Costs
    1. Potential for rigid or outdated interpretations.
    2. Conflict with modern ethical and social norms.
    3. Psychological stress due to perceived divine judgment or inconsistency.
    4. Alienation or exclusion of individuals with differing beliefs.
    Idea Stock Exchange Analysis

    Idea Stock Exchange Analysis

    Belief Statement: There are good and bad aspects in LDS scriptures

    Objective Criteria for Assessing the Validity of this Belief

    • Scriptural Context and Alignment
    • Theological Consistency
    • Historical and Cultural Context
    • Ethical and Moral Standards Evaluation

    Unstated Assumptions

    • Mix of literal and metaphorical teachings in LDS scriptures
    • Applicability of modern ethical standards to religious texts
    • Multiple interpretations of scriptural passages

    Shared Interests (Maslow's Hierarchy)

    • Belonging: Community within or outside LDS faith
    • Self-Actualization: Understanding spiritual teachings
    • Esteem: Intellectual integrity in faith discussions

    Key Resources for Comprehensive Understanding

    • Comparative religious text studies
    • Historical context analyses
    • Theological critiques from diverse perspectives

    Underlying Issues

    • Interpretation levels: Literal vs Metaphorical
    • Ancient texts and modern values reconciliation
    • Potential biases in LDS belief discussions

    Top-rated Solutions

    • Encouraging interfaith dialogues
    • Educational initiatives in scriptural studies
    • Open platforms for scriptural interpretation discussions

    Alternative Expressions

    • "LDS scriptures contain a blend of teachings and questionable doctrines."
    • "Mormon es offer insights despite doctrinal inconsistencies."

    Scores for Each Variation

    • Blend of Teachings - Score: 75%
    • Insights and Doctrinal Issues - Score: 70%

    Chicago has cool architecture +0

    Background, context, and assumptions:
    1. Cool architecture is functional, sustainable, and attractive.
    1. The Chicago Architectural Boat Tour is cool -2. It is hard for an Architectural boat tour to be cool, without cool architecture. 
    2. Chicago is where the skyscraper was invited. 
    Score: 
    • Reasons to agree: +2. 
    • Net total of reasons to agree minus reasons to disagree: -2
    • Total: 0
    My mom when she and my dad came to visit on a bridge in Millennium Park. 


    Background: Me at The Bean, from a 2006 Chicago boat tour, that McDonalds Restaurant Design group took as a team building experience. The image supports this belief because: The bean is cool architecture because it allows you to see yourself in the City. It allows you to reinterprit your surroundings.

    The bean


    Related Links:

    Sep 23, 2012

    Revisiting a Past Issue: Should We Have Eliminated Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan & Pakistan?

    In an era defined by contentious politics and polarized viewpoints, I am proposing a refreshing new model for political discourse and decision-making—one that leans on reason, evidence, and systematic scrutiny of every policy issue. Imagine if funds, usually directed towards expensive advertising campaigns, were instead allocated towards the creation of a dedicated forum. A forum specifically designed for the systematic assembly and evaluation of arguments for and against pertinent policy issues.

    In this proposed political party, politicians would be obligated to express their level of agreement or disagreement with each argument, thereby placing a strong emphasis on evidence-based decision-making. They would pay particular attention to the top 10 pro and con arguments on each issue, assigning a percentage score to reflect the extent of their agreement or disagreement. Their voting behavior should then align with the stance backed by the preponderance of credible evidence.

    For public transparency and accountability, we would maintain a track record of politicians' consistency in accepting or dismissing different types of evidence over time. This innovative approach enables the public to measure whether their representatives' decisions and legislative actions consistently correspond with the evidence.

    America was or would have been, justified in eliminating al Qaeda from Afghanistan & Pakistan


    Reasons to agree:

    1. Al-Qaeda, the orchestrator of the devastating 9/11 attacks, has persistently threatened the United States and its allies.
    2. Al-Qaeda remains active in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
    3. The potential for Al-Qaeda to orchestrate another significant attack is a persisting threat.


    Reasons to disagree:

    1. The war in Afghanistan has been ongoing for over two decades, with thousands of American soldiers' lives lost and little to show in terms of achieving stated objectives.
    2. Invasions and occupations often result in destabilization of the region and inadvertently create a vacuum that breeds more terrorism.
    3. Diplomacy and international cooperation should be our tools for dealing with international terrorism, rather than military invasions.
    4. It would be nice if we could, but we can't, so we won't. Republicans should be realistic. 

    5. We would like to believe that all government welfare was effective, but we have to be cold-eyed realists and spend our money only on those programs that actually work, not the ones that make us feel good about ourselves, like Democrats. In the same way, we need to be realistic about Afghanistan. 

    6. If something is not working, you have to change it.

    7. It comes down to something you can't prove, but we must debate. People who say Romney is wrong would argue that: It would be better if we weren't over there. What are your arguments?

    Supporting Data & Studies:

    1. A 2017 study by the RAND Corporation noted that Al-Qaeda still poses a threat to the U.S and its allies.
    2. A 2018 report by the United Nations Security Council confirmed Al-Qaeda's active presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
    Opposing Data & Studies:
    1. The war in Afghanistan has been ongoing for over two decades, with thousands of American soldiers' lives lost and little to show in terms of achieving stated objectives.
    2. Invasions and occupations often result in destabilization of the region and inadvertently create a vacuum that breeds more terrorism.
    3. Diplomacy and international cooperation should be our tools for dealing with international terrorism, rather than military invasions.

    Supporting Books:

    1. "The Looming Tower" by Lawrence Wright
    2. "The 9/11 Commission Report"
    3. "The Afghanistan Papers" by Craig Whitlock

    Opposing Data & Studies:

    1. The Watson Institute of International and Public Affairs report stating the war in Afghanistan has cost the US over $2 trillion.
    2. The Costs of War Project's report highlighting the death of over 100,000 people due to the war in Afghanistan.

    Supporting Videos:

    1. "Zero Dark Thirty"
    2. "The Hunt for Bin Laden"
    3. "The 13th Warrior"

    Opposing Movies/Documentaries:

    1. "Restrepo" - a documentary on the war in Afghanistan.
    2. "Korengal" - a documentary on a platoon in the Korengal Valley.
    3. "Armadillo" - a documentary on Danish soldiers in the war in Afghanistan.

    Supporting Organizations:

    Opposing Organizations and Websites:

    Supporting Podcasts:

    Opposing Podcasts:

    Supporting Experts:

    1. Riedel, B. (2023). Bruce Riedel - Profile. Brookings Institution. Retrieved May 17, 2023, from https://www.brookings.edu/experts/bruce-riedel/
    2. Hayden, M. (2023). Michael Hayden - Profile. The Chertoff Group. Retrieved May 17, 2023, from https://www.chertoffgroup.com/team/michael-v-hayden
    3. Brennan, J. (2023). John Brennan - Profile. Fordham University. Retrieved May 17, 2023, from https://www.fordham.edu/info/23746/john_o_brennan

    a) Fundamental beliefs or principles one must reject to also reject this belief:

    • The belief that Al-Qaeda still poses a significant threat in Afghanistan and Pakistan
    • The belief that military operations have been ineffective in combating Al-Qaeda
    • The belief that eliminating Al-Qaeda is not a crucial goal

    b) Alternate expressions of this belief:

    • #EliminatingAlQaeda
    • "Achieving a Terrorism-Free Afghanistan & Pakistan"

    c) Criteria to demonstrate the strength of this belief:

    • Analysis of reliable intelligence reports indicating a decline in Al-Qaeda activities
    • Assessing the effectiveness of counterterrorism measures implemented in the region
    • Examining the impact of military operations on Al-Qaeda presence and influence

    d) Shared interests or values with potential dissenters that could promote dialogue and evidence-based understanding:

    • Ensuring regional stability and security
    • Countering the influence of extremist ideologies
    • Protecting civilian lives and human rights

    e) Key differences or obstacles between agreeing and disagreeing parties that need addressing for mutual understanding:

    • Differing interpretations of available intelligence and data
    • Varying perspectives on the effectiveness of military actions
    • Differing assessments of the level of remaining Al-Qaeda presence and threat

    f) Strategies for encouraging dialogue, respect, and using tools to gauge the evidence in this debate:

    • Establishing a platform for informed and evidence-based discussions
    • Promoting respectful engagement among participants
    • Utilizing fact-checking mechanisms and providing access to credible sources

    g) To be considered educated on this topic, you must demonstrate comprehension of these key resources (books, articles, lectures, debates, etc.):

    • "The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict between America and Al-Qaeda" by Peter L. Bergen
    • "The Search for Al-Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future" by Bruce Riedel
    • Lectures by experts in counterterrorism and regional security
    • Debates on the effectiveness of military strategies in combating Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan
    For the further exploration of this innovative, evidence-based political model, I encourage you to visit our platform, GroupIntel, and contribute to our open-source project on Github. These platforms provide a blueprint for how we can promote good ideas, foster nuanced debates, and contribute to a better understanding of our world. Together, let's envision and create a political future that values evidence, consistency, and transparency.